TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Illia Hermakivskyi
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115811911118116
Andrii Hrabskyi
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:02 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeIllia Hermakivskyi to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIllia Hermakivskyi above · Andrii Hrabskyi below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 91 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Illia Hermakivskyi at 57.7%
91 points played in total.
H2H Illia Hermakivskyi 1–1 Andrii Hrabskyi Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:02What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hermakivskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Hermakivskyi 1672 vs Hrabskyi 1666
Hermakivskyi
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hermakivskyi 60% vs Hrabskyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hermakivskyi 30% vs Hrabskyi 60%
Hrabskyi
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hermakivskyi +1 · Hrabskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Hermakivskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrabskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHermakivskyi 1.61 / Hrabskyi 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Hermakivskyi)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13166580
Hermakivskyi1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 13 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Hrabskyi2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 103 of 266
Down 0–1, comes back21% 33 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeHermakivskyi1wins
AwayHrabskyi1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricHermakivskyiHrabskyiHermakivskyi − HrabskyiBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match32.032.5−0.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHermakivskyiHrabskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime27 / 61 vs 235 / 54044.3%43.5%27 / 61 vs 235 / 540Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HermakivskyiHermakivskyi 1.61/Hrabskyi 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Hermakivskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hermakivskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 15 · 16:30I. Hermakivskyi31123791A. Hrabskyi43101111113
WMay 8 · 11:10I. Hermakivskyi331111113A. Hrabskyi226880
I. Hermakivskyi10
WSep 21 · 17:40A. Lievshin1.915670I. Hermakivskyi1.801111113WSep 21 · 14:10O. Seliuchenko2.75911481I. Hermakivskyi1.4011811113LSep 21 · 12:10I. Fedoryshyn1.8311611113I. Hermakivskyi1.83911881WSep 21 · 11:10O. Kolbasenko2.251611101I. Hermakivskyi1.5711119123WSep 17 · 18:30O. Ivchuk1.839840I. Hermakivskyi1.831111113LSep 17 · 17:30O. Bondarchuk1.3611119113I. Hermakivskyi3.00811191LSep 17 · 16:00O. Zhurba1.401111113I. Hermakivskyi2.756660LSep 17 · 14:00O. Pavlyuk1.801111113I. Hermakivskyi1.914470LSep 17 · 12:00D. Neborak1.57115712113I. Hermakivskyi2.25811111092LSep 15 · 18:00I. Hermakivskyi1.40941171V. Marushchak2.7511114113
A. Hrabskyi10
WSep 21 · 17:10O. Seliuchenko1.8312830A. Hrabskyi1.831411113WSep 21 · 14:40O. Kolbasenko1.501158101A. Hrabskyi2.5041111123LSep 21 · 12:40A. Lievshin1.301111113A. Hrabskyi3.405650LSep 21 · 10:40I. Fedoryshyn1.83911118113A. Hrabskyi1.8311281132WSep 18 · 17:10A. Yurkov1.831191171A. Hrabskyi1.8313119113WSep 18 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.28111111892A. Hrabskyi3.50913611113LSep 18 · 14:40V. Marushchak1.531211133A. Hrabskyi2.38105110WSep 18 · 12:40I. Fedoryshyn1.737111171A. Hrabskyi2.0011713113WSep 18 · 10:40V. Voronenko2.2091111782A. Hrabskyi1.61115811113WSep 16 · 11:35V. Mishchenko2.1071060A. Hrabskyi1.671112113
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