TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Valerii Vlasenko
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119911117211811
Nazar Kovalchuk
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:06 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Vlasenko above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 90 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 62.1%
90 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Vlasenko 19–27 Nazar Kovalchuk Valerii Vlasenko has won 19 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:06What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-27 in 46
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 8 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vlasenko 1526 vs Kovalchuk 1711
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 185 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vlasenko 20% vs Kovalchuk 80%
Kovalchuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vlasenko 40% vs Kovalchuk 90%
Kovalchuk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vlasenko +1 · Kovalchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVlasenko 2.25 / Kovalchuk 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13166337
Vlasenko2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 124 of 304
Down 0–1, comes back21% 33 of 154
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 84
Kovalchuk1.57
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 162 of 279
Up 2–0, closes it94% 60 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it74% 108 of 147
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVlasenko4wins
AwayKovalchuk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVlasenko50%3 of 6
AwayKovalchuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vlasenko6Kovalchuk4n = 10Vlasenko took 6 of 10
S2Vlasenko6Kovalchuk4n = 10Vlasenko took 6 of 10
S3Vlasenko4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Vlasenko4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S5Vlasenko1Kovalchuk3n = 4Kovalchuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVlasenkoKovalchukV − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.543.1−3.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVlasenkoKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime408 / 926 vs 393 / 75544.1%52.1%408 / 926 vs 393 / 755Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukVlasenko 2.25/Kovalchuk 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 08:55V. Vlasenko4111911282N. Kovalchuk49911711113
LSep 19 · 15:35V. Vlasenko361111861N. Kovalchuk4491311113
WSep 18 · 02:45V. Vlasenko42121135113N. Kovalchuk47107111182
WSep 15 · 21:15V. Vlasenko3841112113N. Kovalchuk351181061
WSep 6 · 07:05V. Vlasenko4414136113N. Kovalchuk3812111141
LAug 31 · 21:45V. Vlasenko28871121N. Kovalchuk3911116113
LAug 27 · 01:15V. Vlasenko4151171172N. Kovalchuk44113118113
LAug 26 · 01:15V. Vlasenko48911111072N. Kovalchuk51118912113
WAug 25 · 01:15V. Vlasenko4416125113N. Kovalchuk4314101181
LAug 18 · 01:15V. Vlasenko331191031N. Kovalchuk4171112113
V. Vlasenko10
WSep 21 · 07:55V. Vlasenko2.0012925113O. Hura1.7310112381LSep 21 · 06:25V. Vlasenko1.671187101A. Shypilov2.1051111123LSep 21 · 05:25V. Vlasenko1.9161751272O. Mitla1.8011151110113LSep 19 · 18:35V. Vlasenko2.25611681R. Lazebnyi1.5711811113LSep 19 · 16:35A. Shypilov1.91111410793V. Vlasenko1.80712121162LSep 19 · 15:35V. Vlasenko2.251111861N. Kovalchuk1.5791311113LSep 19 · 14:35V. Boyko1.57111114103V. Vlasenko2.251391251WSep 19 · 13:05V. Vlasenko1.831111123O. Napirko1.8347100WSep 18 · 02:45V. Vlasenko2.50121135113N. Kovalchuk1.50107111182WSep 18 · 24:45A. Shypilov1.9111911792V. Vlasenko1.80511911113
N. Kovalchuk10
LSep 21 · 07:25N. Kovalchuk1.61411881A. Shypilov2.2011711113WSep 21 · 05:55N. Kovalchuk1.671111113O. Hura2.107870WSep 21 · 04:25N. Kovalchuk1.401111113O. Mitla2.758770WSep 20 · 10:35N. Kovalchuk1.831211113A. Kotyk1.8310870WSep 20 · 09:05N. Kovalchuk1.361151011113O. Mitla3.0031112762WSep 20 · 07:35N. Kovalchuk1.6111119113A. Shypilov2.20351141WSep 20 · 06:05N. Kovalchuk1.5771111113O. Napirko2.25111771WSep 20 · 04:35N. Kovalchuk1.61114118113R. Lazebnyi2.2071151162WSep 19 · 15:35V. Vlasenko2.251111861N. Kovalchuk1.5791311113LSep 18 · 02:45V. Vlasenko2.50121135113N. Kovalchuk1.50107111182
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