TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Jerzy Pelka
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911911112911––
Piotr Przewlocki
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJerzy Pelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJerzy Pelka above · Piotr Przewlocki below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jerzy Pelka at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Pelka 7–4 Piotr Przewlocki Piotr Przewlocki has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Pelka beat Przewlocki 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:52What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Przewlocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Pelka
Wrong
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pelka 1387 vs Przewlocki 1338
Pelka
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pelka 60% vs Przewlocki 40%
Pelka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pelka 60% vs Przewlocki 40%
Pelka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pelka -1 · Przewlocki -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Przewlocki) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Przewlocki form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPelka 2.10 / Przewlocki 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Przewlocki)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13164857
Pelka2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 86 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Przewlocki1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 128 of 217
Up 2–0, closes it96% 48 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it75% 82 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePelka6wins
AwayPrzewlocki4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderPelka leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePelka60%3 of 5
AwayPrzewlocki40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pelka5Przewlocki5n = 10split evenly
S2Pelka4Przewlocki6n = 10Przewlocki took 6 of 10
S3Pelka7Przewlocki3n = 10Pelka took 7 of 10
S4Pelka8Przewlocki2n = 10Pelka took 8 of 10
S5Pelka2Przewlocki4n = 6Przewlocki took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPelkaPrzewlockiPelka − PrzewlockiBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match46.240.6+5.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPelkaPrzewlockiBasisWin rate · lifetime445 / 948 vs 519 / 109046.9%47.6%445 / 948 vs 519 / 1090Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PrzewlockiPelka 2.10/Przewlocki 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Przewlocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Przewlocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 08:10J. Pelka4411911133P. Przewlocki313116111
LJul 30 · 16:40J. Pelka4511611982P. Przewlocki47511911113
WJul 30 · 10:40J. Pelka541091311113P. Przewlocki45121111742
WJun 18 · 15:55J. Pelka45121111113P. Przewlocki35146781
LJun 18 · 09:55J. Pelka507111011112P. Przewlocki50117127133
LSep 6 · 07:35J. Pelka4371161182P. Przewlocki43112118113
WAug 28 · 03:10J. Pelka4211911113P. Przewlocki30711931
WAug 12 · 15:05J. Pelka48711127113P. Przewlocki49119101182
LAug 12 · 09:05J. Pelka47111081172P. Przewlocki45712114113
WJun 22 · 22:00J. Pelka4411913113P. Przewlocki316111131
J. Pelka10
LSep 21 · 12:40J. Pruszkowski1.5371111113J. Pelka2.38111771WSep 21 · 11:50M. Skuril2.108111061J. Pelka1.6711512113WSep 21 · 11:00J. Pelka1.8361P. Gumulinski1.8350LSep 21 · 09:50J. Pelka2.2013101181R. Idaczyk1.6115126113WSep 21 · 08:10J. Pelka1.7311911133P. Przewlocki2.003116111WSep 21 · 06:30J. Pruszkowski1.57391191J. Pelka2.2511119113WSep 21 · 05:40R. Idaczyk1.83810190J. Pelka1.831112213LSep 21 · 04:55J. Pelka1.8311914462P. Gumulinski1.838111211113WSep 21 · 03:50J. Pelka1.9181111133M. Skuril1.801184111LSep 19 · 08:00J. Pelka1.65891141T. Lojtek2.1011119113
P. Przewlocki10
LSep 21 · 13:30P. Gumulinski1.6111101111113P. Przewlocki2.2081213732LSep 21 · 11:25J. Pruszkowski1.44111111113P. Przewlocki2.63813481WSep 21 · 10:35R. Idaczyk2.0091112131P. Przewlocki1.7311914153WSep 21 · 09:00M. Skuril1.9069111162P. Przewlocki1.82111194113LSep 21 · 08:10J. Pelka1.7311911133P. Przewlocki2.003116111LSep 21 · 07:20P. Gumulinski1.53111118113P. Przewlocki2.388131671LSep 21 · 05:15J. Pruszkowski1.61117116113P. Przewlocki2.2091161172WSep 21 · 04:30M. Skuril1.806117111P. Przewlocki1.9111711133LSep 21 · 03:00R. Idaczyk1.83711125123P. Przewlocki1.831161011102WSep 16 · 14:40P. Przewlocki2.20111213113W. Urban1.616141181
Upcoming Matches
J. Pelka
P. Przewlocki
Sep 21 · 15:30P. Przewlocki1.75J. Pelka1.90—Sep 22 · 03:00P. Przewlocki1.67M. Skuril2.10—Sep 22 · 04:30P. Przewlocki2.10P. Brozek1.67—Sep 22 · 05:15P. Przewlocki2.00O. Jadach1.73—Sep 22 · 07:20P. Przewlocki2.20W. Urban1.61—Sep 22 · 08:10P. Przewlocki2.20R. Niemiec1.61—Sep 22 · 09:00P. Przewlocki2.10P. Brozek1.67—Sep 22 · 10:35P. Przewlocki1.73M. Skuril2.00—Sep 22 · 11:25P. Przewlocki2.00O. Jadach1.73—Sep 22 · 13:30P. Przewlocki2.20W. Urban1.61—
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