TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13159379
Played Sep 19Finished
Krzysztof Zapala
Home
1.82
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1169111210116––
Pawel Kos
Away
1.88
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:45 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Zapala to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
1169111210116––
H2H Krzysztof Zapala 33–38 Pawel Kos Krzysztof Zapala has won 33 of their 71 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:45What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.82 (51%)
Zapala
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-38 in 71
Kos
Wrong
gap of 5 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zapala 1482 vs Kos 1518
Kos
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zapala 40% vs Kos 20%
Zapala
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zapala 30% vs Kos 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zapala +1 · Kos +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kos) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kos form (20%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZapala 1.82 / Kos 1.88
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kos)+4.8pp
TT Cup · #13159379
Zapala1.82
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 67 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it87% 39 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it79% 55 of 70
Kos1.88
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 71 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back19% 17 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZapala4wins
AwayKos6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKos leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZapala80%4 of 5
AwayKos100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zapala5Kos5n = 10split evenly
S2Zapala6Kos4n = 10Zapala took 6 of 10
S3Zapala4Kos6n = 10Kos took 6 of 10
S4Zapala3Kos3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZapalaKosZ − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.033.7+2.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZapalaKosBasisWin rate · lifetime335 / 752 vs 276 / 61344.6%45%335 / 752 vs 276 / 613Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosZapala 1.82/Kos 1.88
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kos · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zapala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 21:30K. Zapala331111113P. Kos124620
WSep 18 · 16:30K. Zapala331111113P. Kos249690
LSep 6 · 08:35K. Zapala207670P. Kos331111113
LSep 3 · 22:10K. Zapala219480P. Kos331111113
LSep 3 · 16:00K. Zapala33581191P. Kos4111118113
LAug 27 · 16:00K. Zapala36712981P. Kos43111011113
WAug 21 · 16:30K. Zapala4211119113P. Kos22261131
LAug 20 · 16:00K. Zapala48119111072P. Kos46511712113
WAug 19 · 16:30K. Zapala43111110113P. Kos32671271
LAug 13 · 16:30K. Zapala51911111192P. Kos51119137113
K. Zapala10
WSep 19 · 17:35D. Bucko1.809112011122K. Zapala1.86119228143WSep 18 · 21:30K. Zapala—1111113P. Kos—4620LSep 18 · 20:30K. Zapala2.907780K. Kowalewski1.301111113LSep 18 · 18:30K. Guzy1.411411115113K. Zapala2.6016581182LSep 18 · 17:30K. Zapala1.7891215952B. Gola1.8311101311113WSep 18 · 16:30P. Kos2.059690K. Zapala1.661111113LSep 18 · 16:00K. Zapala2.8512811662P. Odelski1.361011911113LSep 17 · 22:30K. Guzy1.041113113K. Zapala10.0021180LSep 17 · 20:30K. Zapala2.7511861282K. Guzy1.409111110113LSep 17 · 18:30K. Kowalewski1.3311114113K. Zapala3.10651151
P. Kos10
LSep 19 · 18:05K. Guzy1.47611911113P. Kos2.5011311542WSep 19 · 16:35P. Kos1.8311611113B. Bartosz1.86911571LSep 18 · 21:30K. Zapala—1111113P. Kos—4620LSep 18 · 20:00K. Guzy1.581111123P. Kos2.2535100LSep 18 · 19:00P. Kos2.10117112102P. Odelski1.66611811123LSep 18 · 18:00P. Kos3.108880K. Kowalewski1.331111113LSep 18 · 16:30P. Kos2.059690K. Zapala1.661111113WSep 18 · 14:30P. Kos1.6413119143B. Gola2.0011611121LSep 6 · 14:45A. Duch2.0051111123P. Kos1.741168101LSep 6 · 12:35P. Kos1.9610101171M. Szymanski1.7012127113
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