TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13147412
Played Sep 17Finished
Mateusz Trela
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
3111121210119––
Bartlomiej Mrugala
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:07 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeMateusz Trela to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
3111121210119––
H2H Mateusz Trela 4–8 Bartlomiej Mrugala Mateusz Trela has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Trela beat Mrugala 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:07What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mrugala
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Mrugala
Wrong
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trela 1260 vs Mrugala 1271
Mrugala
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trela 20% vs Mrugala 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trela 30% vs Mrugala 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trela -1 · Mrugala +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mrugala) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrugala form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrela 1.85 / Mrugala 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mrugala)+3.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13147412
Trela1.85
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 148 of 342
Down 0–1, comes back28% 52 of 189
Down 0–2, comes back12% 11 of 94
Mrugala1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 55 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTrela4wins
AwayMrugala6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMrugala leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrela66.7%4 of 6
AwayMrugala100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trela6Mrugala4n = 10Trela took 6 of 10
S2Trela4Mrugala6n = 10Mrugala took 6 of 10
S3Trela5Mrugala5n = 10split evenly
S4Trela5Mrugala4n = 9Trela took 5 of 9
S5Trela1Mrugala3n = 4Mrugala took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTrelaMrugalaT − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.241.4+0.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrelaMrugalaBasisWin rate · lifetime817 / 1668 vs 309 / 67449%45.9%817 / 1668 vs 309 / 674Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MrugalaTrela 1.85/Mrugala 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mrugala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Trela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 16:35M. Trela3711114113B. Mrugala37891191
LSep 16 · 22:15M. Trela35691191B. Mrugala4011117113
LSep 16 · 17:45M. Trela4997111482B. Mrugala531111812113
LSep 8 · 24:10M. Trela46681111102B. Mrugala50111179123
WSep 7 · 15:25M. Trela331111113B. Mrugala206590
WMay 14 · 13:00M. Trela6111101118113B. Mrugala5481282062
LMay 6 · 13:00M. Trela321151151B. Mrugala4051113113
LApr 20 · 17:30M. Trela501011811102B. Mrugala48124119123
WApr 1 · 13:00M. Trela43111110113B. Mrugala32861261
LMar 25 · 14:00M. Trela361171081B. Mrugala4061112113
M. Trela10
LSep 18 · 24:10J. Lamperski1.571211113M. Trela2.2510880LSep 17 · 22:55M. Trela1.4751190K. Golaszewski2.381113113WSep 17 · 21:05M. Trela1.5515116123J. Rolak2.2013411101LSep 17 · 20:05K. Golaszewski2.4771111113M. Trela1.44117791LSep 17 · 19:20J. Rolak1.57111177113M. Trela2.2099111152LSep 17 · 17:20M. Kowalczyk2.13111128113M. Trela1.5968111192WSep 17 · 16:35B. Mrugala2.25891191M. Trela1.5211114113LSep 17 · 15:00J. Lamperski1.931111113M. Trela1.785760WSep 16 · 23:20M. Skorski1.91861181M. Trela1.7011119113LSep 16 · 22:35K. Golaszewski2.2011129113M. Trela1.609101181
B. Mrugala10
LSep 18 · 24:35B. Mrugala1.809890K. Golaszewski1.851111113WSep 17 · 22:35B. Mrugala1.8311115113J. Rolak1.81691151LSep 17 · 21:55J. Lamperski1.44111198113B. Mrugala2.5068111152LSep 17 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk1.76111196113B. Mrugala1.8877111152LSep 17 · 18:55J. Lamperski1.571311113B. Mrugala2.2011680LSep 17 · 18:10B. Mrugala1.836750J. Rolak1.801111113LSep 17 · 16:35B. Mrugala2.25891191M. Trela1.5211114113LSep 17 · 15:50K. Golaszewski1.941111113B. Mrugala1.715870WSep 17 · 24:35K. Golaszewski1.9379111142B. Mrugala1.72111187113WSep 16 · 22:55W. Gluszek1.8811670B. Mrugala1.821311113
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