TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13147408
Played Sep 18Finished
Bartlomiej Mrugala
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811911––––
Kuba Golaszewski
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:06 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Mrugala to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
59 points played in total.
Set by set
911811911––––
H2H Bartlomiej Mrugala 40–28 Kuba Golaszewski Kuba Golaszewski has won 28 of their 68 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Golaszewski beat Mrugala 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:06What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mrugala
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-28 in 68
Mrugala
Wrong
gap of 12 in 68, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrugala 1259 vs Golaszewski 1225
Mrugala
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrugala 20% vs Golaszewski 60%
Golaszewski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrugala 30% vs Golaszewski 50%
Golaszewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrugala -1 · Golaszewski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mrugala)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrugala form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrugala 1.80 / Golaszewski 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mrugala)+3.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13147408
Mrugala1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 55 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Golaszewski1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 175 of 438
Down 0–1, comes back18% 43 of 235
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrugala6wins
AwayGolaszewski4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMrugala leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrugala75%3 of 4
AwayGolaszewski50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrugala4Golaszewski6n = 10Golaszewski took 6 of 10
S2Mrugala6Golaszewski4n = 10Mrugala took 6 of 10
S3Mrugala7Golaszewski3n = 10Mrugala took 7 of 10
S4Mrugala3Golaszewski5n = 8Golaszewski took 5 of 8
S5Mrugala3Golaszewski2n = 5Mrugala took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrugalaGolaszewskiM − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.539.1+2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrugalaGolaszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime309 / 675 vs 419 / 99245.8%42.2%309 / 675 vs 419 / 992Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MrugalaMrugala 1.80/Golaszewski 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mrugala · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Golaszewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 15:50B. Mrugala205870K. Golaszewski331111113
WSep 17 · 24:35B. Mrugala48111187113K. Golaszewski4279111142
WSep 8 · 22:15B. Mrugala568131111133K. Golaszewski47111555112
WSep 8 · 17:45B. Mrugala511011118113K. Golaszewski4412981142
WSep 7 · 23:45B. Mrugala341112113K. Golaszewski2591060
LAug 21 · 23:45B. Mrugala54911119142K. Golaszewski49115611163
LAug 20 · 22:55B. Mrugala4011511582K. Golaszewski47911511113
WAug 20 · 20:05B. Mrugala4391111123K. Golaszewski341167101
WJul 27 · 23:45B. Mrugala3711411113K. Golaszewski31811481
LJul 7 · 19:40B. Mrugala32811491K. Golaszewski3911611113
B. Mrugala10
LSep 17 · 23:45M. Trela1.8531112113B. Mrugala1.801121091WSep 17 · 22:35B. Mrugala1.8311115113J. Rolak1.81691151LSep 17 · 21:55J. Lamperski1.44111198113B. Mrugala2.5068111152LSep 17 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk1.76111196113B. Mrugala1.8877111152LSep 17 · 18:55J. Lamperski1.571311113B. Mrugala2.2011680LSep 17 · 18:10B. Mrugala1.836750J. Rolak1.801111113LSep 17 · 16:35B. Mrugala2.25891191M. Trela1.5211114113LSep 17 · 15:50K. Golaszewski1.941111113B. Mrugala1.715870WSep 17 · 24:35K. Golaszewski1.9379111142B. Mrugala1.72111187113WSep 16 · 22:55W. Gluszek1.8811670B. Mrugala1.821311113
K. Golaszewski10
WSep 17 · 22:55M. Trela1.4751190K. Golaszewski2.381113113WSep 17 · 22:15J. Rolak1.80611861K. Golaszewski1.9011911113LSep 17 · 21:30J. Lamperski1.441111113K. Golaszewski2.625750WSep 17 · 20:05K. Golaszewski2.4771111113M. Trela1.44117791LSep 17 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1.641111113K. Golaszewski2.044970LSep 17 · 17:45J. Lamperski1.4291111113K. Golaszewski2.60117781LSep 17 · 16:55K. Golaszewski1.97714971J. Rolak1.69111211113WSep 17 · 15:50K. Golaszewski1.941111113B. Mrugala1.715870LSep 17 · 24:35K. Golaszewski1.9379111142B. Mrugala1.72111187113WSep 16 · 23:45W. Gluszek1.7399130K. Golaszewski1.981111153
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