TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13147419
Played Sep 17Finished
Bartlomiej Mrugala
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116119511115––
Jaroslaw Rolak
Away
1.81
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Mrugala to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
116119511115––
H2H Bartlomiej Mrugala 34–33 Jaroslaw Rolak Jaroslaw Rolak has won 33 of their 67 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Rolak beat Mrugala 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:05What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.81 (50%)
Rolak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-33 in 67
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrugala 1260 vs Rolak 1240
Mrugala
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrugala 0% vs Rolak 40%
Rolak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrugala 30% vs Rolak 50%
Rolak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrugala -5 · Rolak -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rolak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rolak form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrugala 1.83 / Rolak 1.81
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rolak)+3.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13147419
Mrugala1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 112 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back22% 28 of 130
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 65
Rolak1.81
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 134 of 275
Up 2–0, closes it86% 62 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it70% 106 of 151
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrugala2wins
AwayRolak8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRolak leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrugala66.7%2 of 3
AwayRolak100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrugala3Rolak7n = 10Rolak took 7 of 10
S2Mrugala4Rolak6n = 10Rolak took 6 of 10
S3Mrugala0Rolak10n = 10Rolak took 10 of 10
S4Mrugala2Rolak4n = 6Rolak took 4 of 6
S5Mrugala2Rolak1n = 3Mrugala took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrugalaRolakM − RBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.739.5−5.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrugalaRolakBasisWin rate · lifetime308 / 673 vs 652 / 143745.8%45.4%308 / 673 vs 652 / 1437Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RolakMrugala 1.83/Rolak 1.81
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rolak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mrugala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 18:10B. Mrugala186750J. Rolak331111113
LSep 8 · 21:30B. Mrugala2510870J. Rolak341211113
WSep 8 · 16:55B. Mrugala46119211133J. Rolak50811119112
LSep 1 · 23:20B. Mrugala317111031J. Rolak4311912113
LSep 1 · 20:30B. Mrugala338114101J. Rolak4211811123
WAug 31 · 22:35B. Mrugala46111176113J. Rolak3464111122
LAug 31 · 16:55B. Mrugala2266100J. Rolak341111123
LAug 20 · 22:15B. Mrugala4110119111J. Rolak4112511133
LAug 20 · 16:55B. Mrugala331010130J. Rolak391212153
LJul 28 · 22:15B. Mrugala4211671172J. Rolak45611116113
B. Mrugala10
LSep 17 · 23:45M. Trela1.8531112113B. Mrugala1.801121091LSep 17 · 21:55J. Lamperski1.44111198113B. Mrugala2.5068111152LSep 17 · 19:40M. Kowalczyk1.76111196113B. Mrugala1.8877111152LSep 17 · 18:55J. Lamperski1.571311113B. Mrugala2.2011680LSep 17 · 18:10B. Mrugala1.836750J. Rolak1.801111113LSep 17 · 16:35B. Mrugala2.25891191M. Trela1.5211114113LSep 17 · 15:50K. Golaszewski1.941111113B. Mrugala1.715870WSep 17 · 24:35K. Golaszewski1.9379111142B. Mrugala1.72111187113WSep 16 · 22:55W. Gluszek1.8811670B. Mrugala1.821311113WSep 16 · 22:15M. Trela1.56691191B. Mrugala2.1811117113
J. Rolak10
LSep 17 · 23:20J. Lamperski1.851211113J. Rolak1.8010580LSep 17 · 22:15J. Rolak1.80611861K. Golaszewski1.9011911113LSep 17 · 21:05M. Trela1.5515116123J. Rolak2.2013411101LSep 17 · 20:30J. Lamperski1.60111111113J. Rolak2.10134771WSep 17 · 19:20J. Rolak1.57111177113M. Trela2.2099111152WSep 17 · 18:10B. Mrugala1.836750J. Rolak1.801111113WSep 17 · 16:55K. Golaszewski1.97714971J. Rolak1.69111211113LSep 17 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk1.901112143J. Rolak1.80610120WSep 15 · 23:20P. Ostachowski4.1511611732J. Rolak1.18911911113WSep 15 · 22:35M. Kowalczyk1.879850J. Rolak1.831111113
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