TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142636
Played Sep 17Finished
Gregory Kuzmenko
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911111118116811
Oleksandr Pohonov
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched — 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timeGregory Kuzmenko to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGregory Kuzmenko above · Oleksandr Pohonov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 87 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Gregory Kuzmenko at 68.7%
87 points played in total.
H2H Gregory Kuzmenko 14–5 Oleksandr Pohonov Oleksandr Pohonov has won 5 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:13What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kuzmenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-5 in 19
Kuzmenko
Wrong
gap of 9 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzmenko 1753 vs Pohonov 1744
Kuzmenko
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzmenko 20% vs Pohonov 60%
Pohonov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzmenko 50% vs Pohonov 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzmenko -1 · Pohonov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Kuzmenko) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pohonov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzmenko 1.40 / Pohonov 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Kuzmenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13142636
Kuzmenko1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 65 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it80% 47 of 59
Pohonov2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 39 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKuzmenko8wins
AwayPohonov2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKuzmenko leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzmenko100%6 of 6
AwayPohonov50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzmenko6Pohonov4n = 10Kuzmenko took 6 of 10
S2Kuzmenko8Pohonov2n = 10Kuzmenko took 8 of 10
S3Kuzmenko9Pohonov1n = 10Kuzmenko took 9 of 10
S4Kuzmenko3Pohonov2n = 5Kuzmenko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuzmenkoPohonovK − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.628.2+8.4per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzmenkoPohonovBasisWin rate · lifetime282 / 565 vs 275 / 53149.9%51.8%282 / 565 vs 275 / 531Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmenkoKuzmenko 1.40/Pohonov 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.9%
Kuzmenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pohonov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko4091111182O. Pohonov47111186113
WSep 16 · 14:05G. Kuzmenko331111113O. Pohonov164660
WSep 3 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko3611212113O. Pohonov317111031
WSep 2 · 15:35G. Kuzmenko331111113O. Pohonov207670
LAug 30 · 24:45G. Kuzmenko36811981O. Pohonov4111811113
WAug 27 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko331111113O. Pohonov205960
WAug 26 · 14:35G. Kuzmenko3961111113O. Pohonov21112531
WAug 21 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko331111113O. Pohonov219660
WAug 20 · 12:35G. Kuzmenko50811119113O. Pohonov4711791192
WAug 14 · 11:05G. Kuzmenko331111113O. Pohonov185670
G. Kuzmenko10
LSep 17 · 07:05A. Romanenko1.441115113G. Kuzmenko2.6391380WSep 17 · 05:35G. Kuzmenko2.2061111113B. Chaikovskyi1.61115971LSep 16 · 19:05G. Kuzmenko2.50311871A. Romanenko1.5011711113LSep 16 · 17:05B. Chaikovskyi1.6111811113G. Kuzmenko2.20911871LSep 16 · 15:05I. Hrekh2.2571111113G. Kuzmenko1.57116891WSep 16 · 14:05G. Kuzmenko1.441111113O. Pohonov2.634660WSep 16 · 13:05I. Sukovatyi1.61791181G. Kuzmenko2.2011115113WSep 16 · 02:00G. Kuzmenko1.671111113R. Konkulovskyi2.109540WSep 16 · 24:30G. Kuzmenko2.631111113B. Chaikovskyi1.447970LSep 15 · 23:00G. Kuzmenko2.10128111162I. Sukovatyi1.67141147113
O. Pohonov10
WSep 17 · 06:05I. Hrekh1.731110961O. Pohonov2.0081211113LSep 17 · 05:05A. Romanenko2.381713711113O. Pohonov1.53151511892WSep 16 · 18:35I. Sukovatyi2.758360O. Pohonov1.401111113WSep 16 · 17:35A. Romanenko2.25812118102O. Pohonov1.571110911123LSep 16 · 16:05B. Chaikovskyi1.5711117123O. Pohonov2.258611101LSep 16 · 14:05G. Kuzmenko1.441111113O. Pohonov2.634660LSep 16 · 12:05I. Hrekh1.8011118113O. Pohonov1.91691171WSep 15 · 03:15O. Pohonov1.67111512113V. Krokhmal2.1013131041LSep 15 · 01:15R. Konkulovskyi2.25111288113O. Pohonov1.57810111192WSep 14 · 23:15I. Hrekh1.80512491O. Pohonov1.91111011113
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