TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136518
Played Sep 16Finished
Bohdan Chaikovskyi
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119811118117––
Gregory Kuzmenko
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:35 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeBohdan Chaikovskyi to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBohdan Chaikovskyi above · Gregory Kuzmenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 76 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Bohdan Chaikovskyi at 59.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Bohdan Chaikovskyi 20–12 Gregory Kuzmenko Gregory Kuzmenko has won 12 of their 32 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:35What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Chaikovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-12 in 32
Chaikovskyi
Correct
gap of 8 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaikovskyi 1741 vs Kuzmenko 1811
Kuzmenko
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaikovskyi 40% vs Kuzmenko 80%
Kuzmenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaikovskyi 40% vs Kuzmenko 70%
Kuzmenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaikovskyi +2 · Kuzmenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Chaikovskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaikovskyi 1.61 / Kuzmenko 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Chaikovskyi)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13136518
Chaikovskyi1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 88 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it78% 60 of 77
Kuzmenko2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog47% won 60 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back26% 19 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaikovskyi5wins
AwayKuzmenko5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaikovskyi75%3 of 4
AwayKuzmenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaikovskyi4Kuzmenko6n = 10Kuzmenko took 6 of 10
S2Chaikovskyi3Kuzmenko7n = 10Kuzmenko took 7 of 10
S3Chaikovskyi6Kuzmenko4n = 10Chaikovskyi took 6 of 10
S4Chaikovskyi6Kuzmenko3n = 9Chaikovskyi took 6 of 9
S5Chaikovskyi2Kuzmenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaikovskyiKuzmenkoC − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.039.9+2.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaikovskyiKuzmenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime395 / 767 vs 281 / 56051.5%50.2%395 / 767 vs 281 / 560Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaikovskyiChaikovskyi 1.61/Kuzmenko 2.20
Hit
What we said
55.3%
Chaikovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chaikovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 24:30B. Chaikovskyi237970G. Kuzmenko331111113
LSep 3 · 09:05B. Chaikovskyi4211661182G. Kuzmenko48911116113
LSep 2 · 16:35B. Chaikovskyi48911101172G. Kuzmenko43116123113
WAug 29 · 20:15B. Chaikovskyi51119119113G. Kuzmenko4351181182
LAug 27 · 11:05B. Chaikovskyi408111291G. Kuzmenko45111310113
LAug 22 · 23:15B. Chaikovskyi35911691G. Kuzmenko4011711113
WJul 17 · 04:35B. Chaikovskyi4011711113G. Kuzmenko33811591
WJul 16 · 18:35B. Chaikovskyi5011913173G. Kuzmenko4691111151
WJul 16 · 02:30B. Chaikovskyi49781112113G. Kuzmenko41111161032
WJul 10 · 08:05B. Chaikovskyi4291111113G. Kuzmenko27113761
B. Chaikovskyi10
WSep 16 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.53931191B. Chaikovskyi2.3811119113WSep 16 · 16:05B. Chaikovskyi1.5711117123O. Pohonov2.258611101WSep 16 · 14:35B. Chaikovskyi1.83911119103I. Sukovatyi1.8311581182LSep 16 · 12:35B. Chaikovskyi1.5711661162A. Romanenko2.25811117113LSep 16 · 02:30B. Chaikovskyi1.4011411782V. Krokhmal2.75711811113LSep 16 · 24:30G. Kuzmenko2.631111113B. Chaikovskyi1.447970LSep 15 · 23:30B. Chaikovskyi1.531181111102A. Romanenko2.38611713123LSep 15 · 22:30R. Konkulovskyi1.61119116133B. Chaikovskyi2.20511811112LSep 15 · 21:00B. Chaikovskyi1.838101271I. Sukovatyi1.83111210113WSep 13 · 01:43O. Pohonov2.3811421182B. Chaikovskyi1.53611114113
G. Kuzmenko10
LSep 16 · 15:05I. Hrekh2.2571111113G. Kuzmenko1.57116891WSep 16 · 14:05G. Kuzmenko1.441111113O. Pohonov2.634660WSep 16 · 13:05I. Sukovatyi1.61791181G. Kuzmenko2.2011115113WSep 16 · 02:00G. Kuzmenko1.671111113R. Konkulovskyi2.109540WSep 16 · 24:30G. Kuzmenko2.631111113B. Chaikovskyi1.447970LSep 15 · 23:00G. Kuzmenko2.10128111162I. Sukovatyi1.67141147113WSep 15 · 21:30G. Kuzmenko3.001111123A. Romanenko1.3648100WSep 15 · 20:00G. Kuzmenko1.6111812123V. Krokhmal2.2091110101LSep 8 · 02:00I. Hrekh2.251111113G. Kuzmenko1.577850WSep 8 · 01:00G. Kuzmenko1.671111123V. Slozka2.1079100
Upcoming Matches
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