TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136568
Played Sep 16Finished
Iurii Hrekh
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911311119911––
Bohdan Chaikovskyi
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:47 and never touched — 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeIurii Hrekh to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIurii Hrekh above · Bohdan Chaikovskyi below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Iurii Hrekh at 57.6%
74 points played in total.
H2H Iurii Hrekh 15–8 Bohdan Chaikovskyi Bohdan Chaikovskyi has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:47What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Hrekh
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-8 in 23
Hrekh
Wrong
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrekh 1712 vs Chaikovskyi 1768
Chaikovskyi
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrekh 60% vs Chaikovskyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrekh 60% vs Chaikovskyi 40%
Hrekh
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrekh -1 · Chaikovskyi +3
Chaikovskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Hrekh) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chaikovskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrekh 1.53 / Chaikovskyi 2.38
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Hrekh)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13136568
Hrekh1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 157 of 268
Up 2–0, closes it98% 94 of 96
Up 1–0, closes it80% 124 of 156
Chaikovskyi2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 147 of 331
Down 0–1, comes back27% 50 of 187
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 106
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrekh7wins
AwayChaikovskyi3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHrekh leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrekh62.5%5 of 8
AwayChaikovskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrekh8Chaikovskyi2n = 10Hrekh took 8 of 10
S2Hrekh5Chaikovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Hrekh6Chaikovskyi4n = 10Hrekh took 6 of 10
S4Hrekh4Chaikovskyi3n = 7Hrekh took 4 of 7
S5Hrekh2Chaikovskyi1n = 3Hrekh took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrekhChaikovskyiH − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.933.1+4.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrekhChaikovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime279 / 536 vs 396 / 76852.1%51.6%279 / 536 vs 396 / 768Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrekhHrekh 1.53/Chaikovskyi 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.2%
Hrekh · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chaikovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 20 · 06:35I. Hrekh331111113B. Chaikovskyi174940
LAug 19 · 13:35I. Hrekh3911831162B. Chaikovskyi49811118113
WAug 9 · 24:45I. Hrekh3811511113B. Chaikovskyi26511731
LAug 6 · 07:35I. Hrekh23113631B. Chaikovskyi3961111113
WAug 5 · 18:05I. Hrekh331111113B. Chaikovskyi215970
WAug 5 · 24:30I. Hrekh331111113B. Chaikovskyi112540
WAug 2 · 21:15I. Hrekh50811119113B. Chaikovskyi4511591192
WJul 17 · 07:05I. Hrekh50119811113B. Chaikovskyi4471111962
WJul 16 · 12:05I. Hrekh4291111113B. Chaikovskyi36119881
LJul 16 · 24:30I. Hrekh381112781B. Chaikovskyi4371411113
I. Hrekh10
LSep 16 · 16:35I. Hrekh2.209630I. Sukovatyi1.611111113WSep 16 · 15:05I. Hrekh2.2571111113G. Kuzmenko1.57116891LSep 16 · 13:35I. Hrekh1.83712100A. Romanenko1.831114123WSep 16 · 12:05I. Hrekh1.8011118113O. Pohonov1.91691171WSep 15 · 02:15I. Hrekh1.831111113R. Konkulovskyi1.835870WSep 15 · 24:45I. Hrekh1.5312114113D. Shchegelskyi2.381081171LSep 14 · 23:15I. Hrekh1.80512491O. Pohonov1.91111011113WSep 14 · 21:45I. Hrekh1.731211113V. Krokhmal2.0010590LSep 13 · 20:14I. Hrekh2.006950M. Loboda1.731111113WSep 11 · 10:35I. Hrekh2.1011911113M. Loboda1.67511561
B. Chaikovskyi10
WSep 16 · 17:05B. Chaikovskyi1.6111811113G. Kuzmenko2.20911871WSep 16 · 16:05B. Chaikovskyi1.5711117123O. Pohonov2.258611101WSep 16 · 14:35B. Chaikovskyi1.83911119103I. Sukovatyi1.8311581182LSep 16 · 12:35B. Chaikovskyi1.5711661162A. Romanenko2.25811117113LSep 16 · 02:30B. Chaikovskyi1.4011411782V. Krokhmal2.75711811113LSep 16 · 24:30G. Kuzmenko2.631111113B. Chaikovskyi1.447970LSep 15 · 23:30B. Chaikovskyi1.531181111102A. Romanenko2.38611713123LSep 15 · 22:30R. Konkulovskyi1.61119116133B. Chaikovskyi2.20511811112LSep 15 · 21:00B. Chaikovskyi1.838101271I. Sukovatyi1.83111210113WSep 13 · 01:43O. Pohonov2.3811421182B. Chaikovskyi1.53611114113
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