TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142772
Played Sep 17Finished
Gregory Kuzmenko
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611115119117––
Bohdan Chaikovskyi
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:50 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeBohdan Chaikovskyi to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGregory Kuzmenko above · Bohdan Chaikovskyi below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Bohdan Chaikovskyi at 58.1%
71 points played in total.
H2H Gregory Kuzmenko 12–21 Bohdan Chaikovskyi Gregory Kuzmenko has won 12 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 13h before this match
Chaikovskyi beat Kuzmenko 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:50What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Chaikovskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-21 in 33
Chaikovskyi
Wrong
gap of 9 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzmenko 1769 vs Chaikovskyi 1778
Chaikovskyi
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzmenko 40% vs Chaikovskyi 80%
Chaikovskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzmenko 60% vs Chaikovskyi 40%
Kuzmenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzmenko -3 · Chaikovskyi +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Chaikovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chaikovskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzmenko 2.20 / Chaikovskyi 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Chaikovskyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13142772
Kuzmenko2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 61 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back26% 19 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 37
Chaikovskyi1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 90 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it78% 62 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKuzmenko5wins
AwayChaikovskyi5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzmenko80%4 of 5
AwayChaikovskyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzmenko5Chaikovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Kuzmenko8Chaikovskyi2n = 10Kuzmenko took 8 of 10
S3Kuzmenko4Chaikovskyi6n = 10Chaikovskyi took 6 of 10
S4Kuzmenko3Chaikovskyi6n = 9Chaikovskyi took 6 of 9
S5Kuzmenko2Chaikovskyi2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuzmenkoChaikovskyiK − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.741.9−1.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzmenkoChaikovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime281 / 562 vs 397 / 76950%51.6%281 / 562 vs 397 / 769Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaikovskyiKuzmenko 2.20/Chaikovskyi 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Chaikovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kuzmenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 17:05G. Kuzmenko35911871B. Chaikovskyi4111811113
WSep 16 · 24:30G. Kuzmenko331111113B. Chaikovskyi237970
WSep 3 · 09:05G. Kuzmenko48911116113B. Chaikovskyi4211661182
WSep 2 · 16:35G. Kuzmenko43116123113B. Chaikovskyi48911101172
LAug 29 · 20:15G. Kuzmenko4351181182B. Chaikovskyi51119119113
WAug 27 · 11:05G. Kuzmenko45111310113B. Chaikovskyi408111291
WAug 22 · 23:15G. Kuzmenko4011711113B. Chaikovskyi35911691
LJul 17 · 04:35G. Kuzmenko33811591B. Chaikovskyi4011711113
LJul 16 · 18:35G. Kuzmenko4691111151B. Chaikovskyi5011913173
LJul 16 · 02:30G. Kuzmenko41111161032B. Chaikovskyi49781112113
G. Kuzmenko10
LSep 16 · 19:05G. Kuzmenko2.50311871A. Romanenko1.5011711113LSep 16 · 17:05B. Chaikovskyi1.6111811113G. Kuzmenko2.20911871LSep 16 · 15:05I. Hrekh2.2571111113G. Kuzmenko1.57116891WSep 16 · 14:05G. Kuzmenko1.441111113O. Pohonov2.634660WSep 16 · 13:05I. Sukovatyi1.61791181G. Kuzmenko2.2011115113WSep 16 · 02:00G. Kuzmenko1.671111113R. Konkulovskyi2.109540WSep 16 · 24:30G. Kuzmenko2.631111113B. Chaikovskyi1.447970LSep 15 · 23:00G. Kuzmenko2.10128111162I. Sukovatyi1.67141147113WSep 15 · 21:30G. Kuzmenko3.001111123A. Romanenko1.3648100WSep 15 · 20:00G. Kuzmenko1.6111812123V. Krokhmal2.2091110101
B. Chaikovskyi10
LSep 17 · 06:35B. Chaikovskyi1.911012871I. Sukovatyi1.80121011113WSep 16 · 18:05I. Hrekh1.53931191B. Chaikovskyi2.3811119113WSep 16 · 17:05B. Chaikovskyi1.6111811113G. Kuzmenko2.20911871WSep 16 · 16:05B. Chaikovskyi1.5711117123O. Pohonov2.258611101WSep 16 · 14:35B. Chaikovskyi1.83911119103I. Sukovatyi1.8311581182LSep 16 · 12:35B. Chaikovskyi1.5711661162A. Romanenko2.25811117113LSep 16 · 02:30B. Chaikovskyi1.4011411782V. Krokhmal2.75711811113LSep 16 · 24:30G. Kuzmenko2.631111113B. Chaikovskyi1.447970LSep 15 · 23:30B. Chaikovskyi1.531181111102A. Romanenko2.38611713123LSep 15 · 22:30R. Konkulovskyi1.61119116133B. Chaikovskyi2.20511811112
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