TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130379
Played Sep 15Finished
Nazar Danyliuk
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
311118119116––
Anton Molochko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeNazar Danyliuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Danyliuk above · Anton Molochko below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Nazar Danyliuk at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Danyliuk 174–156 Anton Molochko Anton Molochko has won 156 of their 330 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 15h before this match
Danyliuk beat Molochko 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:16What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Danyliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
174-156 in 330
Danyliuk
Correct
gap of 18 in 330, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Danyliuk 2175 vs Molochko 1901
Danyliuk
Correct
both rated, 274 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danyliuk 80% vs Molochko 40%
Danyliuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danyliuk 90% vs Molochko 30%
Danyliuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Danyliuk -1 · Molochko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Danyliuk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Danyliuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanyliuk 1.73 / Molochko 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Danyliuk)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13130379
Danyliuk1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite63% won 169 of 269
Up 2–0, closes it95% 83 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it82% 125 of 153
Molochko2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 58 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back27% 24 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDanyliuk5wins
AwayMolochko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDanyliuk60%3 of 5
AwayMolochko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Danyliuk5Molochko5n = 10split evenly
S2Danyliuk5Molochko5n = 10split evenly
S3Danyliuk5Molochko5n = 10split evenly
S4Danyliuk3Molochko5n = 8Molochko took 5 of 8
S5Danyliuk2Molochko1n = 3Danyliuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanyliukMolochkoD − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.038.5−0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanyliukMolochkoBasisWin rate · lifetime598 / 977 vs 543 / 93561.2%58.1%598 / 977 vs 543 / 935Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanyliukDanyliuk 1.73/Molochko 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.9%
Danyliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Danyliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 08:25N. Danyliuk45116116113A. Molochko4451191182
WSep 10 · 17:01N. Danyliuk331111113A. Molochko202990
WSep 10 · 12:25N. Danyliuk3811115113A. Molochko29561171
LSep 8 · 10:35N. Danyliuk374121291A. Molochko46111014113
WSep 7 · 18:05N. Danyliuk43101111113A. Molochko35129591
WSep 7 · 01:38N. Danyliuk50771114113A. Molochko48111181262
LSep 7 · 24:30N. Danyliuk48811118102A. Molochko50118811123
LSep 4 · 08:55N. Danyliuk2238110A. Molochko351111133
LSep 3 · 15:55N. Danyliuk311171031A. Molochko3731112113
LAug 31 · 18:05N. Danyliuk33117961A. Molochko4181111113
N. Danyliuk10
LSep 14 · 17:04V. Verbyany2.208101111113N. Danyliuk1.6111125112WSep 14 · 15:25B. Kohut3.50841111112N. Danyliuk1.28111174133WSep 14 · 14:25N. Danyliuk1.53111014113V. Verbyany2.389121241WSep 14 · 13:25A. Molochko2.001010100N. Danyliuk1.731212123WSep 14 · 12:25N. Danyliuk1.25169612113D. Zeniuk3.751411111062WSep 14 · 01:43D. Zeniuk3.7511890N. Danyliuk1.251311113WSep 14 · 24:45A. Molochko2.101253121N. Danyliuk1.67101111143WSep 13 · 23:15N. Danyliuk1.281111113B. Kohut3.508920WSep 13 · 21:45N. Danyliuk1.531211113V. Verbyany2.3810830WSep 13 · 20:15N. Danyliuk1.25124711113D. Zeniuk3.75101111682
A. Molochko10
WSep 14 · 16:25B. Kohut2.631811111182A. Molochko1.44201369113LSep 14 · 14:55A. Molochko1.809860D. Zeniuk1.911111113LSep 14 · 13:25A. Molochko2.001010100N. Danyliuk1.731212123LSep 14 · 11:55A. Molochko1.615460V. Verbyany2.201111113WSep 14 · 01:19V. Verbyany3.256920A. Molochko1.331111113LSep 14 · 24:45A. Molochko2.101253121N. Danyliuk1.67101111143LSep 13 · 23:45A. Molochko1.44811511V. Verbyany2.6311811113WSep 13 · 22:15A. Molochko1.44111110113B. Kohut2.63871281LSep 13 · 21:15A. Molochko1.7385111182D. Zeniuk2.00111155113LSep 11 · 10:25D. Zeniuk2.101111113A. Molochko1.679450
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