TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126466
Played Sep 14Finished
Nazar Danyliuk
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11910121412114––
Vasily Verbyany
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:51 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeNazar Danyliuk to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Danyliuk above · Vasily Verbyany below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 83 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Nazar Danyliuk at 63.2%
83 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Danyliuk 183–72 Vasily Verbyany Vasily Verbyany has won 72 of their 255 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:51What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Danyliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
183-72 in 255
Danyliuk
Correct
gap of 111 in 255, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Danyliuk 2179 vs Verbyany 2035
Danyliuk
Correct
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danyliuk 100% vs Verbyany 60%
Danyliuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danyliuk 90% vs Verbyany 50%
Danyliuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Danyliuk +5 · Verbyany +2
Danyliuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Danyliuk) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Verbyany form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanyliuk 1.53 / Verbyany 2.38
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Danyliuk)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13126466
Danyliuk1.53
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 169 of 269
Up 2–0, closes it95% 83 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it82% 125 of 153
Verbyany2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 91 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back19% 27 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDanyliuk8wins
AwayVerbyany2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDanyliuk leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDanyliuk100%7 of 7
AwayVerbyany66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Danyliuk7Verbyany3n = 10Danyliuk took 7 of 10
S2Danyliuk5Verbyany5n = 10split evenly
S3Danyliuk6Verbyany4n = 10Danyliuk took 6 of 10
S4Danyliuk5Verbyany1n = 6Danyliuk took 5 of 6
S5Danyliuk3Verbyany1n = 4Danyliuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanyliukVerbyanyD − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.530.7+7.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanyliukVerbyanyBasisWin rate · lifetime596 / 974 vs 333 / 79661.2%41.8%596 / 974 vs 333 / 796Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanyliukDanyliuk 1.53/Verbyany 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.2%
Danyliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Danyliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 10:55N. Danyliuk50118711133V. Verbyany47511119112
WSep 8 · 07:05N. Danyliuk50981111113V. Verbyany3411117232
LSep 7 · 14:35N. Danyliuk101720V. Verbyany331111113
WSep 6 · 21:30N. Danyliuk331111113V. Verbyany187740
LSep 4 · 05:55N. Danyliuk4781191182V. Verbyany46114119113
WSep 3 · 17:09N. Danyliuk331111113V. Verbyany146440
WSep 3 · 13:55N. Danyliuk4211911113V. Verbyany29511581
WAug 31 · 14:35N. Danyliuk47117116123V. Verbyany42411611102
WAug 30 · 22:30N. Danyliuk4011117113V. Verbyany30871141
WAug 25 · 05:05N. Danyliuk331111113V. Verbyany141580
N. Danyliuk10
WSep 14 · 13:25A. Molochko2.001010100N. Danyliuk1.731212123WSep 14 · 12:25N. Danyliuk1.25169612113D. Zeniuk3.751411111062WSep 14 · 01:43D. Zeniuk3.7511890N. Danyliuk1.251311113WSep 14 · 24:45A. Molochko2.101253121N. Danyliuk1.67101111143WSep 13 · 23:15N. Danyliuk1.281111113B. Kohut3.508920WSep 13 · 21:45N. Danyliuk1.531211113V. Verbyany2.3810830WSep 13 · 20:15N. Danyliuk1.25124711113D. Zeniuk3.75101111682WSep 11 · 10:55V. Verbyany2.38511119112N. Danyliuk1.53118711133LSep 11 · 09:55B. Kohut3.401112113N. Danyliuk1.3081080WSep 11 · 08:25A. Molochko2.0051191182N. Danyliuk1.73116116113
V. Verbyany10
WSep 14 · 12:55B. Kohut2.00111312182V. Verbyany1.733111411113WSep 14 · 11:55A. Molochko1.615460V. Verbyany2.201111113LSep 14 · 01:19V. Verbyany3.256920A. Molochko1.331111113WSep 13 · 23:45A. Molochko1.44811511V. Verbyany2.6311811113LSep 13 · 22:45V. Verbyany1.611011101172D. Zeniuk2.20126126113LSep 13 · 21:45N. Danyliuk1.531211113V. Verbyany2.3810830WSep 13 · 20:45V. Verbyany1.801112113B. Kohut1.9161060LSep 11 · 10:55V. Verbyany2.38511119112N. Danyliuk1.53118711133LSep 11 · 08:55D. Zeniuk2.0011511133V. Verbyany1.733116111WSep 11 · 07:55V. Verbyany1.80111011133B. Kohut1.916126111
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