TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126964
Played Sep 14Finished
Bohdan Kohut
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11313111214111811
Vasily Verbyany
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:16 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeVasily Verbyany to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBohdan Kohut above · Vasily Verbyany below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 1-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 95 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Vasily Verbyany at 54.9%
95 points played in total.
H2H Bohdan Kohut 54–49 Vasily Verbyany Vasily Verbyany has won 49 of their 103 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:16What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Verbyany
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
54-49 in 103
Kohut
Wrong
gap of 5 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kohut 1903 vs Verbyany 2028
Verbyany
Correct
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kohut 20% vs Verbyany 40%
Verbyany
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kohut 40% vs Verbyany 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kohut -4 · Verbyany +1
Kohut
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Verbyany)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Verbyany form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKohut 2.00 / Verbyany 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Verbyany)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13126964
Kohut2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 113 of 306
Down 0–1, comes back18% 30 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 104
Verbyany1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 45 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it89% 23 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it73% 35 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKohut4wins
AwayVerbyany6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVerbyany leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKohut100%3 of 3
AwayVerbyany85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kohut3Verbyany7n = 10Verbyany took 7 of 10
S2Kohut5Verbyany5n = 10split evenly
S3Kohut3Verbyany7n = 10Verbyany took 7 of 10
S4Kohut2Verbyany4n = 6Verbyany took 4 of 6
S5Kohut3Verbyany1n = 4Kohut took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKohutVerbyanyK − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.639.2−3.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKohutVerbyanyBasisWin rate · lifetime288 / 651 vs 332 / 79544.2%41.8%288 / 651 vs 332 / 795Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VerbyanyKohut 2.00/Verbyany 1.73
Hit
What we said
54.9%
Verbyany · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Verbyany won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 07:55B. Kohut356126111V. Verbyany45111011133
LSep 8 · 05:35B. Kohut48811121162V. Verbyany52118148113
LSep 7 · 15:35B. Kohut28311140V. Verbyany401113163
WAug 30 · 21:00B. Kohut45114118113V. Verbyany4051161172
WAug 25 · 06:35B. Kohut331111113V. Verbyany239950
LAug 24 · 13:05B. Kohut2510870V. Verbyany341211113
LAug 23 · 21:00B. Kohut31811751V. Verbyany4011711113
WAug 21 · 05:25B. Kohut43118211113V. Verbyany3961111832
WAug 20 · 15:25B. Kohut43311117113V. Verbyany4511971172
LAug 20 · 24:30B. Kohut2569100V. Verbyany341111123
B. Kohut10
WSep 14 · 13:55B. Kohut1.731211113D. Zeniuk2.0010690LSep 14 · 24:15B. Kohut1.804111081D. Zeniuk1.9111812113LSep 13 · 23:15N. Danyliuk1.281111113B. Kohut3.508920LSep 13 · 22:15A. Molochko1.44111110113B. Kohut2.63871281LSep 13 · 20:45V. Verbyany1.801112113B. Kohut1.9161060WSep 11 · 11:25O. Bondarchuk2.501412771B. Kohut1.50121411113WSep 11 · 09:55B. Kohut3.401112113N. Danyliuk1.3081080LSep 11 · 07:55V. Verbyany1.80111011133B. Kohut1.916126111WSep 11 · 05:55D. Zeniuk2.209670B. Kohut1.611111113LSep 11 · 04:55A. Molochko1.501111113B. Kohut2.506770
V. Verbyany10
LSep 14 · 14:25N. Danyliuk1.53111014113V. Verbyany2.389121241WSep 14 · 11:55A. Molochko1.615460V. Verbyany2.201111113LSep 14 · 01:19V. Verbyany3.256920A. Molochko1.331111113WSep 13 · 23:45A. Molochko1.44811511V. Verbyany2.6311811113LSep 13 · 22:45V. Verbyany1.611011101172D. Zeniuk2.20126126113LSep 13 · 21:45N. Danyliuk1.531211113V. Verbyany2.3810830WSep 13 · 20:45V. Verbyany1.801112113B. Kohut1.9161060LSep 11 · 10:55V. Verbyany2.38511119112N. Danyliuk1.53118711133LSep 11 · 08:55D. Zeniuk2.0011511133V. Verbyany1.733116111WSep 11 · 07:55V. Verbyany1.80111011133B. Kohut1.916126111
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