TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126327
Played Sep 14Finished
Anton Molochko
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511411611––––
Vasily Verbyany
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:12 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeAnton Molochko to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnton Molochko above · Vasily Verbyany below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 48 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Anton Molochko at 62.9%
48 points played in total.
H2H Anton Molochko 154–76 Vasily Verbyany Vasily Verbyany has won 76 of their 230 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:12What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Molochko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
154-76 in 230
Molochko
Wrong
gap of 78 in 230, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molochko 1929 vs Verbyany 2008
Verbyany
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molochko 40% vs Verbyany 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molochko 30% vs Verbyany 50%
Verbyany
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Molochko +1 · Verbyany -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Molochko) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molochko form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolochko 1.61 / Verbyany 2.20
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Molochko)-1.0pp
Setka Cup · #13126327
Molochko1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 145 of 237
Up 2–0, closes it96% 65 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it84% 102 of 122
Verbyany2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 91 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back19% 27 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolochko4wins
AwayVerbyany6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVerbyany leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolochko60%3 of 5
AwayVerbyany80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molochko5Verbyany5n = 10split evenly
S2Molochko6Verbyany4n = 10Molochko took 6 of 10
S3Molochko6Verbyany4n = 10Molochko took 6 of 10
S4Molochko2Verbyany6n = 8Verbyany took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolochkoVerbyanyM − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.836.6−1.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolochkoVerbyanyBasisWin rate · lifetime542 / 931 vs 331 / 79458.2%41.7%542 / 931 vs 331 / 794Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolochkoMolochko 1.61/Verbyany 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.7%
Molochko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Verbyany won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 01:19A. Molochko331111113V. Verbyany176920
LSep 13 · 23:45A. Molochko25811511V. Verbyany4111811113
LSep 11 · 06:55A. Molochko30651181V. Verbyany3711114113
LSep 8 · 09:05A. Molochko4011141141V. Verbyany4991613113
LSep 7 · 16:35A. Molochko335111251V. Verbyany45111310113
WSep 6 · 23:30A. Molochko331111113V. Verbyany209560
LSep 4 · 09:53A. Molochko26127431V. Verbyany43101111113
LSep 4 · 07:55A. Molochko4751214792V. Verbyany5511101211113
WSep 3 · 12:55A. Molochko4111118113V. Verbyany27441181
WAug 31 · 16:35A. Molochko4061112113V. Verbyany321161051
A. Molochko10
WSep 14 · 01:19V. Verbyany3.256920A. Molochko1.331111113LSep 14 · 24:45A. Molochko2.101253121N. Danyliuk1.67101111143LSep 13 · 23:45A. Molochko1.44811511V. Verbyany2.6311811113WSep 13 · 22:15A. Molochko1.44111110113B. Kohut2.63871281LSep 13 · 21:15A. Molochko1.7385111182D. Zeniuk2.00111155113LSep 11 · 10:25D. Zeniuk2.101111113A. Molochko1.679450LSep 11 · 09:25A. Molochko1.2812771172O. Bondarchuk3.501011116113LSep 11 · 08:25A. Molochko2.0051191182N. Danyliuk1.73116116113LSep 11 · 06:55A. Molochko1.40651181V. Verbyany2.7511114113WSep 11 · 04:55A. Molochko1.501111113B. Kohut2.506770
V. Verbyany10
LSep 14 · 01:19V. Verbyany3.256920A. Molochko1.331111113WSep 13 · 23:45A. Molochko1.44811511V. Verbyany2.6311811113LSep 13 · 22:45V. Verbyany1.611011101172D. Zeniuk2.20126126113LSep 13 · 21:45N. Danyliuk1.531211113V. Verbyany2.3810830WSep 13 · 20:45V. Verbyany1.801112113B. Kohut1.9161060LSep 11 · 10:55V. Verbyany2.38511119112N. Danyliuk1.53118711133LSep 11 · 08:55D. Zeniuk2.0011511133V. Verbyany1.733116111WSep 11 · 07:55V. Verbyany1.80111011133B. Kohut1.916126111WSep 11 · 06:55A. Molochko1.40651181V. Verbyany2.7511114113WSep 11 · 05:25V. Verbyany1.531113113O. Bondarchuk2.3851180
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