TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111053
Played Sep 11Finished
Vasily Verbyany
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111181179111113
Nazar Danyliuk
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:07 and never touched — 65.2% is still 65.2%
Graded at full timeNazar Danyliuk to win
65.2%
65.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasily Verbyany above · Nazar Danyliuk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 97 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Nazar Danyliuk at 65.2%
97 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Verbyany 72–183 Nazar Danyliuk Vasily Verbyany has won 72 of their 255 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:07What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Danyliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
72-183 in 255
Danyliuk
Correct
gap of 111 in 255, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Verbyany 2019 vs Danyliuk 2121
Danyliuk
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Verbyany 80% vs Danyliuk 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Verbyany 80% vs Danyliuk 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Verbyany -1 · Danyliuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Danyliuk) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Danyliuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVerbyany 2.38 / Danyliuk 1.53
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Danyliuk)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13111053
Verbyany2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 91 of 242
Down 0–1, comes back20% 28 of 141
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 76
Danyliuk1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 165 of 269
Up 2–0, closes it95% 82 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it81% 122 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVerbyany2wins
AwayDanyliuk8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDanyliuk leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVerbyany66.7%2 of 3
AwayDanyliuk100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Verbyany3Danyliuk7n = 10Danyliuk took 7 of 10
S2Verbyany5Danyliuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Verbyany4Danyliuk6n = 10Danyliuk took 6 of 10
S4Verbyany1Danyliuk5n = 6Danyliuk took 5 of 6
S5Verbyany1Danyliuk3n = 4Danyliuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVerbyanyDanyliukV − DBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.738.5−7.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVerbyanyDanyliukBasisWin rate · lifetime329 / 789 vs 593 / 97541.7%60.8%329 / 789 vs 593 / 975Avg sets wonper match1.82.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanyliukVerbyany 2.38/Danyliuk 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.2%
Danyliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Danyliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 10:55V. Verbyany—511119112N. Danyliuk—118711133
LSep 8 · 07:05V. Verbyany—11117232N. Danyliuk—981111113
WSep 7 · 14:35V. Verbyany—1111113N. Danyliuk—1720
LSep 6 · 21:30V. Verbyany—7740N. Danyliuk—1111113
WSep 4 · 05:55V. Verbyany—114119113N. Danyliuk—81191182
LSep 3 · 17:09V. Verbyany—6440N. Danyliuk—1111113
LSep 3 · 13:55V. Verbyany—511581N. Danyliuk—11911113
LAug 31 · 14:35V. Verbyany—411611102N. Danyliuk—117116123
LAug 30 · 22:30V. Verbyany—871141N. Danyliuk—11117113
LAug 25 · 05:05V. Verbyany—1580N. Danyliuk—1111113
V. Verbyany10
LSep 11 · 08:55D. Zeniuk2.0011511133V. Verbyany1.733116111WSep 11 · 07:55V. Verbyany1.80111011133B. Kohut1.916126111WSep 11 · 06:55A. Molochko1.40651181V. Verbyany2.7511114113WSep 11 · 05:25V. Verbyany1.531113113O. Bondarchuk2.3851180WSep 8 · 11:05V. Verbyany1.7311711123D. Zeniuk2.008117101WSep 8 · 09:05A. Molochko1.4411141141V. Verbyany2.6391613113WSep 8 · 08:05V. Verbyany1.201311113A. Zeniuk4.3311180LSep 8 · 07:05N. Danyliuk1.44981111113V. Verbyany2.6311117232WSep 8 · 05:35V. Verbyany1.80118148113B. Kohut1.91811121162WSep 7 · 18:35V. Verbyany1.221111113A. Zeniuk4.006670
N. Danyliuk10
LSep 11 · 09:55B. Kohut3.401112113N. Danyliuk1.3081080WSep 11 · 08:25A. Molochko2.0051191182N. Danyliuk1.73116116113WSep 11 · 06:25O. Bondarchuk3.754240N. Danyliuk1.251111113WSep 11 · 04:25D. Zeniuk3.2577100N. Danyliuk1.331111123WSep 10 · 17:01N. Danyliuk1.401111113A. Molochko2.752990WSep 10 · 15:55N. Danyliuk1.331111113B. Kohut3.258840WSep 10 · 14:55O. Bondarchuk2.7511116482N. Danyliuk1.40791111113WSep 10 · 13:55D. Pesternikov5.50116761N. Danyliuk1.1381111113WSep 10 · 12:25A. Molochko2.10561171N. Danyliuk1.6711115113WSep 8 · 07:05N. Danyliuk1.44981111113V. Verbyany2.6311117232
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