TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13107622
Played Sep 10Finished
Dawid Kosmal
Home
2.17
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111210118611117
Grzegorz Poliniewicz
Away
1.56
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:33 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Poliniewicz to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
9111210118611117
H2H Dawid Kosmal 9–15 Grzegorz Poliniewicz Dawid Kosmal has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:33What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.56 (58%)
Poliniewicz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-15 in 24
Poliniewicz
Wrong
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosmal 1684 vs Poliniewicz 1703
Poliniewicz
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosmal 80% vs Poliniewicz 40%
Kosmal
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosmal 80% vs Poliniewicz 40%
Kosmal
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosmal -1 · Poliniewicz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Poliniewicz) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poliniewicz form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosmal 2.17 / Poliniewicz 1.56
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Poliniewicz)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13107622
Kosmal2.17
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 59 of 160
Down 0–1, comes back23% 20 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Poliniewicz1.56
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 336 of 472
Up 2–0, closes it95% 149 of 157
Up 1–0, closes it85% 248 of 291
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKosmal3wins
AwayPoliniewicz7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPoliniewicz leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosmal33.3%2 of 6
AwayPoliniewicz75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosmal6Poliniewicz4n = 10Kosmal took 6 of 10
S2Kosmal2Poliniewicz8n = 10Poliniewicz took 8 of 10
S3Kosmal3Poliniewicz7n = 10Poliniewicz took 7 of 10
S4Kosmal2Poliniewicz6n = 8Poliniewicz took 6 of 8
S5Kosmal2Poliniewicz1n = 3Kosmal took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosmalPoliniewiczK − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.540.4−3.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosmalPoliniewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 655 vs 1250 / 210954.7%59.3%358 / 655 vs 1250 / 2109Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PoliniewiczKosmal 2.17/Poliniewicz 1.56
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.6%
Poliniewicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kosmal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 5 · 09:20D. Kosmal—711117113G. Poliniewicz—11341162
LJul 15 · 07:15D. Kosmal—5560G. Poliniewicz—1111113
WJul 15 · 04:50D. Kosmal—1171011113G. Poliniewicz—81112882
WJul 14 · 06:25D. Kosmal—11813113G. Poliniewicz—9111191
LJul 14 · 04:00D. Kosmal—119851G. Poliniewicz—51111113
LJun 24 · 06:25D. Kosmal—11710101G. Poliniewicz—91112123
LJun 24 · 04:00D. Kosmal—6770G. Poliniewicz—1111113
LJun 23 · 09:20D. Kosmal—1191091G. Poliniewicz—81112113
LJun 10 · 09:25D. Kosmal—1111561G. Poliniewicz—91311113
LJun 8 · 09:50D. Kosmal—81111882G. Poliniewicz—117811113
D. Kosmal10
LSep 10 · 13:50D. Kosmal3.0091240M. Miastowski1.311114113LSep 10 · 11:20D. Kosmal1.9581111101K. Wisniewski1.7511133123WSep 10 · 10:05F. Krcil2.28114111052D. Kosmal1.51311812113WSep 10 · 09:20D. Kosmal2.601111811113J. Kuzmicz1.4191311792WSep 10 · 08:30D. Kosmal1.3411513113P. Blocho2.809111161WSep 10 · 06:55D. Kosmal1.261111113A. Linek3.258770WSep 10 · 05:55D. Kosmal1.551211113F. Krcil2.2010870WSep 10 · 04:00D. Kosmal1.30163118113B. Sulkowski3.10141141172WSep 10 · 03:00D. Kosmal1.251111113R. Stapor3.354690WSep 1 · 14:15M. Sklensky1.908780D. Kosmal1.801111113
G. Poliniewicz10
WSep 10 · 11:45F. Krcil2.44101250G. Poliniewicz1.451214113WSep 10 · 10:55G. Poliniewicz2.1814911113J. Kuzmicz1.561211891LSep 10 · 09:45G. Poliniewicz2.50871151M. Miastowski1.4611114113LSep 8 · 13:50G. Poliniewicz2.0511611962M. Sklensky1.65911611113LSep 8 · 12:35G. Poliniewicz2.197611111J. Kuzmicz1.5511116133WSep 8 · 11:20G. Poliniewicz1.831111123K. Wisniewski1.8388100LSep 8 · 10:05K. Glazowski1.5711811113G. Poliniewicz2.16611991WSep 8 · 09:20G. Poliniewicz2.101151211113A. Daniel1.6041114842LSep 7 · 13:50M. Sklensky1.4411129113G. Poliniewicz2.507101151LSep 7 · 13:00K. Strowski1.6011115113G. Poliniewicz2.15971171
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