TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13059162
Played Sep 2Finished
Martin Parzhizek
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
311118118119––
Erik Mares
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Parzhizek above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 72 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Erik Mares at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Martin Parzhizek 4–5 Erik Mares Martin Parzhizek has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:04What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Parzhizek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Parzhizek 1937 vs Mares 1879
Parzhizek
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Parzhizek 40% vs Mares 60%
Mares
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Parzhizek 50% vs Mares 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Parzhizek -1 · Mares -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Parzhizek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParzhizek 1.61 / Mares 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Parzhizek)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13059162
Parzhizek1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 24 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it71% 17 of 24
Mares2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 99 of 220
Down 0–1, comes back25% 28 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeParzhizek4wins
AwayMares5wins
4 of 9 to a deciderMares leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParzhizek60%3 of 5
AwayMares75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Parzhizek5Mares4n = 9Parzhizek took 5 of 9
S2Parzhizek4Mares5n = 9Mares took 5 of 9
S3Parzhizek2Mares7n = 9Mares took 7 of 9
S4Parzhizek4Mares2n = 6Parzhizek took 4 of 6
S5Parzhizek2Mares2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricParzhizekMaresP − MBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match35.438.4−3.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParzhizekMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime53 / 84 vs 588 / 117063.1%50.3%53 / 84 vs 588 / 1170Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParzhizekParzhizek 1.61/Mares 2.20
Hit
What we said
55.1%
Parzhizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Parzhizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 1 · 14:00M. Parzhizek—56110E. Mares—1111133
LAug 19 · 21:30M. Parzhizek—11111015102E. Mares—691217123
WAug 19 · 20:00M. Parzhizek—11116163E. Mares—6911141
WAug 26 · 19:00M. Parzhizek—1111113E. Mares—5370
LAug 22 · 09:30M. Parzhizek—11631182E. Mares—711118113
WAug 22 · 07:30M. Parzhizek—111911113E. Mares—81111652
LJun 14 · 20:00M. Parzhizek—611711E. Mares—11711113
LApr 18 · 21:30M. Parzhizek—4620E. Mares—1111113
WApr 18 · 18:30M. Parzhizek—661111103E. Mares—11114752
M. Parzhizek10
WSep 2 · 20:58J. Zajicek2.2011560M. Parzhizek1.611311113LSep 2 · 20:00J. Medek1.7311116113M. Parzhizek2.00781181LSep 2 · 19:00J. Zajicek2.2511117113M. Parzhizek1.57771121LSep 1 · 17:00M. Parzhizek1.916911101J. Medek1.8011115123WSep 1 · 16:00M. Parzhizek1.337111110113V. Koubek3.2511641292WSep 1 · 15:30J. Medek1.731012791M. Parzhizek2.00121011113LSep 1 · 14:00M. Parzhizek1.5356110E. Mares2.381111133LAug 19 · 21:30M. Parzhizek1.3311111015102E. Mares2.80691217123WAug 19 · 20:00M. Parzhizek1.5711116163E. Mares2.256911141WAug 19 · 19:30L. Prikasky2.635118101M. Parzhizek1.4411611123
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113WSep 1 · 14:00M. Parzhizek1.5356110E. Mares2.381111133WAug 19 · 21:30M. Parzhizek1.3311111015102E. Mares2.80691217123LAug 19 · 20:00M. Parzhizek1.5711116163E. Mares2.256911141
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