TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12436236
Played Aug 14Finished
Filip Baranski
Home
1.81
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
13156111171315––
Wiekiera Arkadiusz
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeWiekiera Arkadiusz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
13156111171315––
H2H Filip Baranski 2–3 Wiekiera Arkadiusz Filip Baranski has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.81 (50%)
Baranski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baranski 1170 vs Arkadiusz 1433
Arkadiusz
Correct
both rated, 263 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baranski 40% vs Arkadiusz 60%
Arkadiusz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baranski 40% vs Arkadiusz 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baranski +1 · Arkadiusz +3
Arkadiusz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Arkadiusz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baranski form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaranski 1.81 / Arkadiusz 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Arkadiusz)+4.3pp
TT Cup · #12436236
Baranski1.81
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Arkadiusz1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog54% won 47 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBaranski2wins
AwayArkadiusz3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderArkadiusz leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaranski66.7%2 of 3
AwayArkadiuszn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baranski3Arkadiusz2n = 5Baranski took 3 of 5
S2Baranski2Arkadiusz3n = 5Arkadiusz took 3 of 5
S3Baranski0Arkadiusz5n = 5Arkadiusz took 5 of 5
S4Baranski3Arkadiusz1n = 4Baranski took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricBaranskiArkadiuszB − ABasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match42.246.2−4.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranskiArkadiuszBasisWin rate · lifetime6 / 22 vs 554 / 98227.3%56.4%6 / 22 vs 554 / 982Avg sets wonper match1.62.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.941.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ArkadiuszBaranski 1.81/Arkadiusz 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Arkadiusz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Arkadiusz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WJul 19 · 13:45F. Baranski—1210711183W. Arkadiusz—1012117162
WJul 19 · 12:05F. Baranski—17147143W. Arkadiusz—151211121
LJul 14 · 21:30F. Baranski—113861W. Arkadiusz—61111113
LJul 14 · 17:00F. Baranski—101281192W. Arkadiusz—1210119113
LJul 4 · 08:35F. Baranski—7790W. Arkadiusz—1111113
F. Baranski10
WSep 1 · 21:30F. Baranski1.59114711123K. Kos2.24711116102WSep 1 · 20:00F. Baranski2.85138119113K. Kos1.33111151182LSep 1 · 18:30F. Baranski—61111562P. Kamil—114911113WSep 1 · 17:00F. Baranski2.11711116113J. Komorowicz1.6011991182LSep 1 · 15:00F. Baranski—51161552K. Patryk—1151113113LSep 1 · 14:00F. Baranski—9960W. Arkadiusz—1111113LAug 14 · 21:40P. Kamil—11111113F. Baranski—411551WAug 14 · 18:30P. Kamil—121169112F. Baranski—1061111133LAug 14 · 17:30F. Baranski2.2211101081J. Caban1.5491212113LAug 14 · 16:30J. Komorowicz1.515181111113F. Baranski2.2911204792
W. Arkadiusz10
WSep 7 · 15:30L. Buklat1.8369100W. Arkadiusz1.831111123LSep 7 · 14:00K. Patryk1.601091711113W. Arkadiusz2.10121115892LSep 2 · 22:40P. Odelski1.591111113W. Arkadiusz2.138890LSep 2 · 20:30P. Odelski1.6414711113W. Arkadiusz2.031211781WSep 2 · 19:30K. Patryk1.5781170W. Arkadiusz2.171113113WSep 2 · 18:00J. Komorowicz2.5512811982W. Arkadiusz1.421011911113WSep 2 · 15:30L. Buklat1.886811111W. Arkadiusz1.8211119133LSep 2 · 14:00P. Kamil1.9016911113W. Arkadiusz1.801411471LSep 1 · 22:00W. Arkadiusz1.8511119582P. Kamil1.85791111113WSep 1 · 14:00F. Baranski—9960W. Arkadiusz—1111113
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