TT Lossbeater/WTT Europe Smash Sweden
WTT Europe Smash SwedenMatch #12393994
Played Aug 12Finished
Kristian Karlsson
Home
4.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161198111311––
Hiroto Shinozuka
Away
1.17
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeHiroto Shinozuka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKristian Karlsson above · Hiroto Shinozuka below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 80 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Hiroto Shinozuka at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 02:03What took a side2 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Shinozuka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Form (L5)
Karlsson 60% vs Shinozuka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karlsson 50% vs Shinozuka 70%
Shinozuka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karlsson +1 · Shinozuka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Shinozuka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shinozuka form (60%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarlsson 4.50 / Shinozuka 1.17
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Shinozuka)-0.0pp
WTT Europe Smash Sweden · #12393994
Karlsson4.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Shinozuka1.17
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarlssonShinozukaBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 10 vs 7 / 1050%70%5 / 10 vs 7 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShinozukaKarlsson 4.50/Shinozuka 1.17
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.4%
Shinozuka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Karlsson won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
K. Karlsson10
LSep 4 · 11:00A. Kouraichi4.50111411123K. Karlsson1.17117118102WSep 3 · 13:20L. Katsman4.337116101K. Karlsson1.2011411123LAug 13 · 17:45S. Togami1.251111113K. Karlsson3.759660WMay 5 · 17:08K. Karlsson1.131111133D. Szantosi5.5077110LApr 11 · 03:35K. Karlsson2.1011414852T. Pucar1.677111211113WApr 10 · 10:10L. Mladenovic3.75111981K. Karlsson1.2571111113WApr 9 · 06:00K. Karlsson1.131111113H. Bae5.507530LApr 1 · 12:00H. Calderano1.201111114113K. Karlsson4.3313511192WMar 30 · 09:35K. Karlsson1.3611711113L. Jancarik3.00411481LMar 11 · 07:05Y. Lin1.0781111113K. Karlsson7.50116471
H. Shinozuka10
LAug 9 · 04:00J. Oh2.251111711114H. Shinozuka1.574411761WAug 8 · 08:30H. Shinozuka4.00812119114F. Lebrun1.22111081172WAug 6 · 05:00J. Geraldo3.751162101H. Shinozuka1.2591111123WAug 4 · 02:00H. Shinozuka2.50911115113Y. Uda1.5011591192LJul 25 · 15:45Y. Uda2.001111113H. Shinozuka1.737160WJul 24 · 16:55D. Kozul6.005680H. Shinozuka1.111111113LJul 5 · 03:15H. Shinozuka1.679911981V. Sidorenko2.101111811114WJul 3 · 21:20H. Calderano1.20119631H. Shinozuka4.3341111113WJul 2 · 01:35H. Shinozuka2.25117114113R. Wen1.5781181142WJun 30 · 01:35H. Shinozuka1.1711513113L. Pitchford4.506111191
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