TT Lossbeater/WTT Contender Almaty
WTT Contender AlmatyMatch #13067212
Played Sep 3Finished
Lev Katsman
Home
4.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111146111012––
Kristian Karlsson
Away
1.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 75.0% is still 75.0%
Graded at full timeKristian Karlsson to win
75.0%
75.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLev Katsman above · Kristian Karlsson below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 72 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Kristian Karlsson at 75.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Lev Katsman 0–1 Kristian Karlsson Lev Katsman has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side1 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Karlsson
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Katsman 80% vs Karlsson 60%
Katsman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Katsman 50% vs Karlsson 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Katsman +2 · Karlsson -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Karlsson) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karlsson form (60%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKatsman 4.33 / Karlsson 1.20
Signal prob.22% / 78%
Edge (Karlsson)-0.0pp
WTT Contender Almaty · #13067212
Katsman4.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Karlsson1.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKatsman0wins
AwayKarlsson1wins
Karlsson leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKatsmanKarlssonKatsman − KarlssonBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match34.038.0−4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKatsmanKarlssonBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 10 vs 5 / 1050%50%5 / 10 vs 5 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarlssonKatsman 4.33/Karlsson 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.3%
Karlsson · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Karlsson won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 3 · 13:20L. Katsman—7116101K. Karlsson—11411123
L. Katsman10
WSep 2 · 13:20L. Katsman1.131114113A. Kenzhigulov5.5061280WSep 2 · 05:00L. Katsman1.0411118113D. Kenzhigulov9.00671161LJul 27 · 14:00E. Dorr1.851112113L. Katsman1.8561070WJul 27 · 08:20L. Katsman1.031211113S. Iskandarov10.0010770WJul 26 · 13:50L. Katsman1.051111113P. Suresh8.503350WJul 2 · 08:35L. Katsman—1111113S. Gulomiddinov—7740LJul 1 · 13:30L. Katsman—1116101142Z. Yaman—818126113LMay 22 · 16:50L. Katsman—11111431H. Hsu—13916113LMay 22 · 08:00L. Katsman1.6711111431H. Hsu2.1013916113LFeb 13 · 21:02T. Moregaard—111210113L. Katsman—6101261
K. Karlsson10
LSep 4 · 11:00A. Kouraichi4.50111411123K. Karlsson1.17117118102LAug 13 · 17:45S. Togami1.251111113K. Karlsson3.759660WAug 12 · 17:45K. Karlsson4.5011118133H. Shinozuka1.176911111WMay 5 · 17:08K. Karlsson1.131111133D. Szantosi5.5077110LApr 11 · 03:35K. Karlsson2.1011414852T. Pucar1.677111211113WApr 10 · 10:10L. Mladenovic3.75111981K. Karlsson1.2571111113WApr 9 · 06:00K. Karlsson1.131111113H. Bae5.507530LApr 1 · 12:00H. Calderano1.201111114113K. Karlsson4.3313511192WMar 30 · 09:35K. Karlsson1.3611711113L. Jancarik3.00411481LMar 11 · 07:05Y. Lin1.0781111113K. Karlsson7.50116471
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