TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12393304
Played Aug 10Finished
Juri Grauer
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911411311––––
Johannes Willeke
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:08 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJohannes Willeke to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJuri Grauer above · Johannes Willeke below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 49 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Johannes Willeke at 58.9%
49 points played in total.
H2H Juri Grauer 0–1 Johannes Willeke Juri Grauer has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:08What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Willeke
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Grauer 952 vs Willeke 1351
Willeke
Correct
both rated, 398 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grauer 0% vs Willeke 20%
Willeke
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grauer 0% vs Willeke 20%
Willeke
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grauer -5 · Willeke +1
Grauer
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Willeke)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Willeke form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrauer 2.25 / Willeke 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Willeke)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12393304
Grauer2.25
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Willeke1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeGrauer0wins
AwayWilleke1wins
Willeke leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricGrauerWillekeG − WBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match16.033.0−17.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrauerWillekeBasisWin rate · lifetime1 / 20 vs 9 / 325%28.1%1 / 20 vs 9 / 32Avg sets wonper match0.51.3per matchAvg pointsper match22.729.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WillekeGrauer 2.25/Willeke 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Willeke · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Willeke won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 10 · 08:30J. Grauer—9430J. Willeke—1111113
J. Grauer10
LAug 11 · 08:00J. Grauer1.279950M. Ozdemir3.251111113LAug 11 · 07:30J. Grauer1.309950M. Ozdemir3.401111113LAug 10 · 14:30J. Grauer10.503940M. Danzer1.021111113LAug 10 · 13:00J. Grauer2.00811471S. Amann1.7311811113LAug 10 · 09:30J. Grauer—91080M. Stefanidis—1112113LAug 10 · 06:30J. Grauer—812111172K. Waltl—1110813113LMar 17 · 09:30D. Rinderer1.031111113J. Grauer10.008450LMar 16 · 18:00K. Walter1.20111110113J. Grauer4.33731251LMar 16 · 16:30J. Grauer4.335980J. Lama1.201111113LMar 16 · 14:00J. Grauer4.339540B. Robben1.201111113
J. Willeke10
LAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:30M. Henninger1.301111113J. Willeke3.407760LAug 24 · 15:00P. Koloidenko2.00471611123J. Willeke1.731111146102LAug 24 · 13:30J. Willeke3.758111171E. Huzsvar1.2211139113LAug 24 · 11:30J. Willeke1.50111112982M. Kupfer2.50871411113LAug 24 · 10:00J. Willeke4.506650V. Yefimov1.171111113LAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 11 · 10:00K. Waltl2.50851161J. Willeke1.5011114113LAug 11 · 09:15M. Stefanidis—9101111113J. Willeke—11128252LAug 11 · 08:30J. Willeke6.70811531M. Danzer1.0511711113
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