TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12355758
Played Aug 4Finished
Ondrej Kysely
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
14121111012115611
Zbynek Pagac
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:30 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kysely to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Kysely above · Zbynek Pagac below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 93 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Ondrej Kysely at 57.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kysely 0–1 Zbynek Pagac Ondrej Kysely has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:30What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pagac
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kysely 1612 vs Pagac 1634
Pagac
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kysely 40% vs Pagac 80%
Pagac
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kysely 60% vs Pagac 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kysely -1 · Pagac +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pagac) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pagac form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKysely 2.00 / Pagac 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pagac)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12355758
Kysely2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Pagac1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 130 of 226
Up 2–0, closes it92% 57 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it76% 88 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKysely0wins
AwayPagac1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderPagac leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKyselyPagacK − PBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match42.051.0−9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKyselyPagacBasisWin rate · lifetime65 / 101 vs 268 / 56264.4%47.7%65 / 101 vs 268 / 562Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PagacKysely 2.00/Pagac 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pagac · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pagac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 4 · 07:00O. Kysely—141101162Z. Pagac—1211125113
O. Kysely10
LAug 6 · 09:30D. Machander1.7011811113O. Kysely2.00411531WAug 6 · 08:00O. Kysely1.839101111113T. Petrek1.8311124642LAug 6 · 07:30D. Machander1.83111011143O. Kysely1.835124121WAug 6 · 06:00O. Kysely1.6111119113A. Walek2.20791161LAug 4 · 08:59D. Unzeitig1.611110911113O. Kysely2.2031211482LAug 4 · 08:30O. Kysely1.839460D. Unzeitig1.831111113LAug 4 · 06:00R. Hudeczek1.801181211113O. Kysely1.9151114822WJul 7 · 03:00P. Pycha2.25961141O. Kysely1.5711116113LJul 7 · 02:30M. Chlebecek2.0011119113O. Kysely1.73891191WJul 7 · 01:00A. Hlawatschke2.0051511882O. Kysely1.731113811113
Z. Pagac10
LSep 4 · 21:00L. Kern1.4071112113Z. Pagac2.751171011LSep 4 · 20:30R. Hudeczek1.8011911113Z. Pagac1.91511891LSep 4 · 19:30Z. Pagac3.251112831L. Kern1.3371411113LSep 4 · 18:30M. Chalupa1.5711811113Z. Pagac2.25911481LSep 4 · 17:30R. Hudeczek1.8061111123Z. Pagac1.911164101WSep 4 · 16:30Z. Pagac2.001111811113R. Hudeczek1.7391311792WSep 4 · 15:00Z. Pagac2.2511712113M. Chalupa1.574111091LSep 4 · 14:00L. Kern1.33711118113Z. Pagac3.2511981192LSep 3 · 21:30M. Chalupa1.52119114113Z. Pagac2.3561181162LSep 3 · 20:30Z. Pagac1.839713101T. Kypr1.83111111123
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