TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12366429
Played Aug 6Finished
Ondrej Kysely
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111012114116114
Tomas Petrek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:33 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeTomas Petrek to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Kysely above · Tomas Petrek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 89 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Tomas Petrek at 63.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kysely 2–3 Tomas Petrek Ondrej Kysely has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:33What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Petrek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kysely 1622 vs Petrek 1663
Petrek
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kysely 20% vs Petrek 60%
Petrek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kysely 30% vs Petrek 70%
Petrek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kysely -1 · Petrek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Petrek) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kysely form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKysely 1.83 / Petrek 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Petrek)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12366429
Kysely1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Petrek1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKysely2wins
AwayPetrek3wins
3 of 5 to a deciderPetrek leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKysely33.3%1 of 3
AwayPetrekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kysely3Petrek2n = 5Kysely took 3 of 5
S2Kysely1Petrek4n = 5Petrek took 4 of 5
S3Kysely4Petrek1n = 5Kysely took 4 of 5
S4Kysely2Petrek2n = 4split evenly
S5Kysely1Petrek2n = 3Petrek took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKyselyPetrekK − PBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match46.643.4+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKyselyPetrekBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 104 vs 123 / 22964.4%53.7%67 / 104 vs 123 / 229Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PetrekKysely 1.83/Petrek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Petrek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kysely won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 6 · 08:00O. Kysely—9101111113T. Petrek—11124642
LAug 18 · 09:30O. Kysely—11811992T. Petrek—811911113
LAug 18 · 07:00O. Kysely—1112111192T. Petrek—131495113
WJul 7 · 08:59O. Kysely—1217113T. Petrek—101580
LJul 7 · 06:00O. Kysely—1291171T. Petrek—101113113
O. Kysely10
LAug 6 · 09:30D. Machander1.7011811113O. Kysely2.00411531LAug 6 · 07:30D. Machander1.83111011143O. Kysely1.835124121WAug 6 · 06:00O. Kysely1.6111119113A. Walek2.20791161LAug 4 · 08:59D. Unzeitig1.611110911113O. Kysely2.2031211482LAug 4 · 08:30O. Kysely1.839460D. Unzeitig1.831111113LAug 4 · 07:00O. Kysely2.00141101162Z. Pagac1.731211125113LAug 4 · 06:00R. Hudeczek1.801181211113O. Kysely1.9151114822WJul 7 · 03:00P. Pycha2.25961141O. Kysely1.5711116113LJul 7 · 02:30M. Chlebecek2.0011119113O. Kysely1.73891191WJul 7 · 01:00A. Hlawatschke2.0051511882O. Kysely1.731113811113
T. Petrek10
LAug 28 · 13:30J. Hutnik1.5061111113T. Petrek2.50116331WAug 28 · 12:30L. Martinak1.737138111T. Petrek2.00111111133LAug 28 · 11:30T. Petrek2.386690J. Hutnik1.531111113WAug 28 · 10:30J. Simecek1.67111061262T. Petrek2.109121110113LAug 27 · 09:00T. Petrek1.911012491J. Hutnik1.80121011113LAug 27 · 08:00J. Simecek1.73411711113T. Petrek2.0011711792LAug 27 · 07:00L. Martinak1.8311115113T. Petrek1.83381191WAug 27 · 06:30T. Petrek2.75111465113J. Hutnik1.40512111182WAug 26 · 08:58L. Martinak1.80101040T. Petrek1.911212113LAug 26 · 08:30T. Petrek2.0051450J. Hutnik1.731116113
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