TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #11903974
Played May 17Finished
Patrik Sturma
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611117411118119
Michal Kocur
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Michal Kocur below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 89 set 5, 11-9
89 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Sturma 13–14 Michal Kocur Patrik Sturma has won 13 of their 27 meetings.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kocur)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocur form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 2.00 / Kocur 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Kocur)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #11903974
Sturma2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Kocur1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSturma3wins
AwayKocur7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKocur leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturman = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKocur62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma2Kocur8n = 10Kocur took 8 of 10
S2Sturma5Kocur5n = 10split evenly
S3Sturma3Kocur7n = 10Kocur took 7 of 10
S4Sturma5Kocur3n = 8Sturma took 5 of 8
S5Sturma2Kocur3n = 5Kocur took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSturmaKocurS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.043.1−5.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaKocurBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 510 vs 123 / 23149%53.3%250 / 510 vs 123 / 231Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.740.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocurSturma 2.00/Kocur 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Kocur · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 12 · 14:15P. Sturma—1M. Kocur—3
WMay 11 · 17:20P. Sturma—3M. Kocur—1
LMay 11 · 13:45P. Sturma—0M. Kocur—3
LMay 9 · 19:40P. Sturma—2M. Kocur—3
LMay 6 · 15:45P. Sturma—2M. Kocur—3
LApr 27 · 16:39P. Sturma—2M. Kocur—3
WApr 27 · 15:40P. Sturma—3M. Kocur—2
LApr 21 · 16:10P. Sturma—1M. Kocur—3
WApr 16 · 14:10P. Sturma—3M. Kocur—2
LApr 15 · 14:10P. Sturma—0M. Kocur—3
P. Sturma10
LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113LAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler1.531111113P. Sturma2.389930WAug 30 · 15:40J. Sindler1.83913971P. Sturma1.83111111113
M. Kocur10
WMay 17 · 16:45R. Jancak1.5311851172M. Kocur2.38811116113LMay 17 · 15:10M. Kocur2.001441191R. Jancak1.73121113113LMay 17 · 13:40F. Mandrysz1.6111117113M. Kocur2.20551141LMay 12 · 17:25M. Kocur—91113462L. Jr—1191111113WMay 12 · 15:45L. Jr1.981112111082M. Kocur1.68914712113LMay 12 · 15:15J. Lysek2.42117411113M. Kocur1.4681111982WMay 12 · 14:15M. Kocur1.8291111173P. Sturma1.821187151LMay 11 · 17:20M. Kocur1.671169131P. Sturma2.0071111153WMay 11 · 15:45M. Kocur1.3911119113L. Snr2.60471161WMay 11 · 14:45M. Kocur1.66119118113D. Cecotka2.0281121172
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