TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jan Krames Jr. vs Matus Zelinka 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Apr 25Finished
Jan Krames Jr.
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117711711117811
Matus Zelinka
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingJan Krames Jr. above · Matus Zelinka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 91 set 5, 8-11
91 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krames Jr. 9–6 Matus Zelinka Matus Zelinka has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zelinka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr. form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr. 2.38 / Zelinka 1.53
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zelinka)-6.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #11798215
The market does not separate these two
2.38 against 1.53 — a coin flip with a margin on top.
Below 3pp of separation the engine pins the read to 50 ± 4 and then drops the pick. So no percentage is published here — the price is the datum.
Jr.2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Zelinka1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr.6wins
AwayZelinka4wins
Jr. leads 6–4.
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr.8Zelinka2n = 10Jr. took 8 of 10
S2Jr.4Zelinka6n = 10Zelinka took 6 of 10
S3Jr.4Zelinka6n = 10Zelinka took 6 of 10
S4Jr.1Zelinka8n = 9Zelinka took 8 of 9
S5Jr.5Zelinka0n = 5Jr. took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJr.ZelinkaJ − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.841.1−1.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJr.ZelinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime160 / 325 vs 216 / 39649.2%54.6%160 / 325 vs 216 / 396Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelinkaJr. 2.38/Zelinka 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zelinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zelinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
L—J. Jr.—3M. Zelinka—1
L—J. Jr.—1M. Zelinka—3
W—J. Jr.—3M. Zelinka—2
W—J. Jr.—2M. Zelinka—3
W—J. Jr.—3M. Zelinka—2
L—J. Jr.—1M. Zelinka—3
W—J. Jr.—3M. Zelinka—0
L—J. Jr.—3M. Zelinka—1
W—J. Jr.—3M. Zelinka—2
W—J. Jr.—2M. Zelinka—3
J. Jr.10
LAug 6 · 20:13J. Jr.1.80871191M. Ullman1.9111116113WJul 15 · 20:43J. Jr.1.671111123R. Durovic2.1067100WJul 11 · 20:44J. Jr.2.1041312113V. Burylov1.6711111071LMay 3 · 12:33J. Jr.1.7391311182R. Pisa2.001111811113WMay 3 · 12:00J. Jr.2.38671111113D. Gasparovic1.5311118792LMay 3 · 10:30R. Pisa2.0081212113J. Jr.1.7311101031LMay 3 · 10:00S. Rejent2.251111113J. Jr.1.575640LMay 2 · 20:39J. Jr.1.73101131192M. Makara2.00126119113LMay 2 · 20:00J. Jr.1.50811581S. Rejent2.5011911113LMay 2 · 18:30M. Makara2.10101111133J. Jr.1.671248111
M. Zelinka10
LSep 22 · 08:49M. Zelinka2.388890M. Bouska1.531111113WSep 22 · 07:45L. Dobias1.8011119101M. Zelinka1.9113611123LSep 22 · 06:45V. Burylov1.80127911113M. Zelinka1.91101111882WSep 22 · 05:15M. Bouska1.441110861M. Zelinka2.6381211113WSep 21 · 12:21M. Zelinka1.331111113M. Stibor3.256860WSep 21 · 11:45R. Pisa2.1051160M. Zelinka1.671113113LSep 21 · 10:45L. Adam2.38118811113M. Zelinka1.5351111662LSep 21 · 09:15M. Stibor2.251111113M. Zelinka1.575780WSep 20 · 12:43R. Pisa2.50661181M. Zelinka1.5011116113WSep 20 · 11:15M. Zelinka1.6111611113O. Kaderabek2.20711591
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