TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Daniel Zelezny vs Ales Brandtl Jr 3-1 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 6 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118711117119––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:23 and never touched: 77.5% is still 77.5%
Graded at full timeDaniel Zelezny to win
77.5%
77.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Zelezny above · Ales Brandtl Jr below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Daniel Zelezny at 77.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Zelezny 5–2 Ales Brandtl Jr Ales Brandtl Jr has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:2377.5%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 0.3pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Zelezny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Zelezny
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezny 1622 vs Brandtl Jr 1512
Zelezny
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezny 80% vs Brandtl Jr 60%
Zelezny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezny 60% vs Brandtl Jr 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezny +2 · Brandtl Jr +3
Brandtl Jr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% · Strong (leans Zelezny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brandtl Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezny 1.285 / Brandtl Jr 3.50
Signal prob.78% / 23%
Edge (Zelezny)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13273913
Zelezny1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 38 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it80% 12 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it75% 24 of 32
Brandtl Jr3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 76 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back30% 33 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back14% 9 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeZelezny5wins
AwayBrandtl Jr2wins
2 of 7 to a deciderZelezny leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezny71.4%5 of 7
AwayBrandtl Jrn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezny7Brandtl Jr0n = 7Zelezny took 7 of 7
S2Zelezny5Brandtl Jr2n = 7Zelezny took 5 of 7
S3Zelezny5Brandtl Jr2n = 7Zelezny took 5 of 7
S4Zelezny2Brandtl Jr2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricZeleznyBrandtl JrZ − BBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set70+7of 7Avg pointsper match38.933.7+5.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZeleznyBrandtl JrBasisWin rate · lifetime129 / 234 vs 261 / 54655.1%47.8%129 / 234 vs 261 / 546Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZeleznyZelezny 1.28/Brandtl Jr 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.5%
Zelezny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zelezny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LOct 3 · 17:25D. Zelezny5015117982A. Brandtl Jr541381111113
WOct 3 · 11:25D. Zelezny3913311123A. Brandtl Jr3411112101
WSep 29 · 16:50D. Zelezny331111113A. Brandtl Jr198470
WSep 15 · 14:50D. Zelezny341111123A. Brandtl Jr2697100
LJul 4 · 11:25D. Zelezny4411116972A. Brandtl Jr46581111113
WOct 15 · 16:10D. Zelezny3911611113A. Brandtl Jr33611791
WJul 24 · 14:20D. Zelezny331111113A. Brandtl Jr249690
D. Zelezny10
WOct 10 · 14:55L. Rek3.008890D. Zelezny1.361111113WOct 5 · 22:05J. Dohnal1.8099100D. Zelezny1.901111123LOct 5 · 20:50D. Zelezny2.0010111111122J. Dohnal1.73125139143WOct 5 · 19:20T. Rein2.754620D. Zelezny1.401111113WOct 5 · 18:50J. Cousin2.6311115101D. Zelezny1.4413711123LOct 3 · 18:35D. Zelezny1.3271171172J. Cousin3.00115114113LOct 3 · 17:25D. Zelezny1.2515117982A. Brandtl Jr3.751381111113WOct 3 · 15:55J. Cousin3.0084100D. Zelezny1.361111123WOct 3 · 15:25V. Koutnik1.8011981182D. Zelezny1.91711118113LOct 3 · 14:31D. Zelezny1.9241111452J. Sebl1.78117911113
A. Brandtl Jr10
WOct 10 · 16:55L. Rek1.501191161A. Brandtl Jr2.5081113113WOct 10 · 15:25A. Brandtl Jr1.8311118113D. Vojna1.83551171WOct 3 · 18:04V. Koutnik1.50711541A. Brandtl Jr2.4011911113WOct 3 · 17:25D. Zelezny1.2515117982A. Brandtl Jr3.751381111113LOct 3 · 16:25A. Brandtl Jr2.2515960V. Koutnik1.571711103LOct 3 · 14:55J. Cousin1.571151111113A. Brandtl Jr2.2571113552LOct 3 · 14:00A. Brandtl Jr2.251061111112V. Koutnik1.57121194133LOct 3 · 12:55J. Sebl1.331111113A. Brandtl Jr3.255580WOct 3 · 12:25V. Koutnik1.53125111192A. Brandtl Jr2.381011135113LOct 3 · 11:25A. Brandtl Jr3.5011112101D. Zelezny1.2813311123
Upcoming Matches
D. Zelezny
Nothing scheduled
A. Brandtl Jr
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