TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Simon Holik vs Zdenek Muhlhauser 2-3 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 4 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6117111412115911
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:42 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSimon Holik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSimon Holik above · Zdenek Muhlhauser below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 9-10
Point 96 set 5, 9-10 · our read held Simon Holik at 54.0%
96 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Simon Holik 1–2 Zdenek Muhlhauser Simon Holik has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4254.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Muhlhauser
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holik 1543 vs Muhlhauser 1491
Holik
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holik 40% vs Muhlhauser 60%
Muhlhauser
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holik 60% vs Muhlhauser 40%
Holik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holik +1 · Muhlhauser +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Holik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holik form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolik 1.909 / Muhlhauser 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Holik)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13272264
Holik1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 17 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back36% 9 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back25% 3 of 12
Muhlhauser1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 28 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it71% 17 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHolik1wins
AwayMuhlhauser2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderMuhlhauser leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holik1Muhlhauser2n = 3Muhlhauser took 2 of 3
S2Holik0Muhlhauser3n = 3Muhlhauser took 3 of 3
S3Holik2Muhlhauser1n = 3Holik took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricHolikMuhlhauserH − MBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match39.042.0−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolikMuhlhauserBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 207 vs 67 / 13555.1%49.6%114 / 207 vs 67 / 135Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HolikHolik 1.91/Muhlhauser 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Holik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Muhlhauser won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 25 · 20:25S. Holik31137110Z. Muhlhauser391511133
LJul 27 · 18:30S. Holik35961371Z. Muhlhauser44111111113
WJul 27 · 16:55S. Holik51119119113Z. Muhlhauser4391161162
S. Holik10
LOct 10 · 12:55S. Holik1.8311101181J. Dohnal1.8371213113WOct 10 · 10:55S. Holik2.0051111123J. Sebl1.731188101LSep 25 · 22:05S. Holik1.7361181142J. Dohnal2.00117114113LSep 25 · 21:25D. Pasek2.00111111143S. Holik1.731396121LSep 25 · 20:25S. Holik1.83137110Z. Muhlhauser1.831511133WSep 25 · 18:55J. Dohnal1.839980S. Holik1.831111113WSep 25 · 13:55F. Dvorak1.671173101S. Holik2.1071111123WSep 25 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr2.10711111182S. Holik1.67111347113WSep 25 · 11:50T. Rein2.50921181S. Holik1.5011118113LSep 25 · 10:50S. Holik1.80691151F. Dvorak1.9111116113
Z. Muhlhauser10
LOct 10 · 11:25J. Dohnal2.1081115143Z. Muhlhauser1.6711713121WOct 5 · 17:59Z. Muhlhauser1.50129911113P. Kubat2.50101111252WOct 5 · 16:55P. Kubat2.38118861Z. Muhlhauser1.5361111113LOct 5 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.9111149113Z. Muhlhauser1.807121151LOct 5 · 15:25Z. Muhlhauser1.67111111482P. Vodal2.10136211113WSep 28 · 09:55A. Brandtl Jr1.616121151Z. Muhlhauser2.2011146113LSep 28 · 09:25Z. Muhlhauser1.839450A. Brandtl Jr1.831111113LSep 28 · 07:55T. Cerveny Jr1.83911612113Z. Muhlhauser1.83119111062LSep 28 · 07:25L. Rek1.4411116113Z. Muhlhauser2.63541131WSep 25 · 20:25S. Holik1.83137110Z. Muhlhauser1.831511133
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