TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Simon Holik vs Jaroslav Dohnal 1-3 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 4 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11710121113811––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:37 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSimon Holik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSimon Holik above · Jaroslav Dohnal below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 83 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Simon Holik at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Simon Holik 5–7 Jaroslav Dohnal Simon Holik has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:3754.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Dohnal
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Dohnal
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holik 1543 vs Dohnal 1511
Holik
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holik 20% vs Dohnal 60%
Dohnal
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holik 50% vs Dohnal 70%
Dohnal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holik -1 · Dohnal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Holik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holik form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolik 1.833 / Dohnal 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Holik)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13271758
Holik1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Dohnal1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolik5wins
AwayDohnal5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolik100%3 of 3
AwayDohnal71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holik3Dohnal7n = 10Dohnal took 7 of 10
S2Holik6Dohnal4n = 10Holik took 6 of 10
S3Holik5Dohnal5n = 10split evenly
S4Holik4Dohnal2n = 6Holik took 4 of 6
S5Holik2Dohnal2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolikDohnalH − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.737.8+0.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolikDohnalBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 208 vs 387 / 66154.8%58.6%114 / 208 vs 387 / 661Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.840.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HolikHolik 1.83/Dohnal 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Holik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dohnal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 22:05S. Holik4061181142J. Dohnal44117114113
WSep 25 · 18:55S. Holik331111113J. Dohnal269980
WAug 30 · 11:50S. Holik49881111113J. Dohnal4211119562
WAug 29 · 13:25S. Holik4112711113J. Dohnal341011851
LJun 28 · 17:20S. Holik229580J. Dohnal331111113
WJun 28 · 15:20S. Holik521011911113J. Dohnal3912411752
WMay 2 · 12:55S. Holik351111133J. Dohnal2375110
LApr 12 · 13:29S. Holik53611116192J. Dohnal60119811213
LApr 12 · 12:20S. Holik2791170J. Dohnal351113113
LJun 15 · 14:20S. Holik351011771J. Dohnal4212811113
S. Holik10
LOct 10 · 11:55S. Holik1.9167141192Z. Muhlhauser1.801111125113WOct 10 · 10:55S. Holik2.0051111123J. Sebl1.731188101LSep 25 · 22:05S. Holik1.7361181142J. Dohnal2.00117114113LSep 25 · 21:25D. Pasek2.00111111143S. Holik1.731396121LSep 25 · 20:25S. Holik1.83137110Z. Muhlhauser1.831511133WSep 25 · 18:55J. Dohnal1.839980S. Holik1.831111113WSep 25 · 13:55F. Dvorak1.671173101S. Holik2.1071111123WSep 25 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr2.10711111182S. Holik1.67111347113WSep 25 · 11:50T. Rein2.50921181S. Holik1.5011118113LSep 25 · 10:50S. Holik1.80691151F. Dvorak1.9111116113
J. Dohnal10
LOct 10 · 12:25J. Sebl2.251191311113J. Dohnal1.57911111392WOct 10 · 11:25J. Dohnal2.1081115143Z. Muhlhauser1.6711713121LOct 5 · 22:05J. Dohnal1.8099100D. Zelezny1.901111123WOct 5 · 20:50D. Zelezny2.0010111111122J. Dohnal1.73125139143LOct 5 · 19:50J. Dohnal1.57611981J. Cousin2.2511711113WOct 5 · 18:20T. Rein2.506490J. Dohnal1.501111113WOct 4 · 13:50J. Sebl2.0711941182J. Dohnal1.67911115113WOct 4 · 12:20T. Rein2.5091161172J. Dohnal1.50116118113WSep 25 · 22:05S. Holik1.7361181142J. Dohnal2.00117114113LSep 25 · 18:55J. Dohnal1.839980S. Holik1.831111113
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