TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jachym Sebl vs Jaroslav Dohnal 3-2 · TT Cup
TT CupCzech 4 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11991113111113119
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:06 and never touched: 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Jachym Sebl @ 2.62 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Jaroslav Dohnal below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 8-9
Point 105 set 5, 8-9 · our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 63.6%
105 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jachym Sebl 18–51 Jaroslav Dohnal Jachym Sebl has won 18 of their 69 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pick
Sealed 22:06Sent to Pro: Jachym Sebl @ 2.62 · Won
63.6%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 0.1pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dohnal
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-51 in 69
Dohnal
Wrong
gap of 33 in 69, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1626 vs Dohnal 1519
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 60% vs Dohnal 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 60% vs Dohnal 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl -2 · Dohnal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Dohnal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebl form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 2.25 / Dohnal 1.571
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Dohnal)-0.1pp
TT Cup · #13271754
Sebl2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 64 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back18% 15 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 55
Dohnal1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 120 of 214
Up 2–0, closes it91% 62 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it69% 88 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebl5wins
AwayDohnal5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebl75%3 of 4
AwayDohnal66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl4Dohnal6n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S2Sebl3Dohnal7n = 10Dohnal took 7 of 10
S3Sebl5Dohnal5n = 10split evenly
S4Sebl6Dohnal2n = 8Sebl took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeblDohnalS − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.639.3−1.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblDohnalBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 626 vs 387 / 66148.1%58.6%301 / 626 vs 387 / 661Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.240.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SeblSebl 2.25/Dohnal 1.57
Hit
What we said
63.6%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jachym Sebl @ 2.62 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
3–2
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 13:50J. Sebl4311941182J. Dohnal47911115113
WOct 4 · 11:50J. Sebl4381111133J. Dohnal341148111
LSep 27 · 17:55J. Sebl199640J. Dohnal331111113
LSep 27 · 16:20J. Sebl364711141J. Dohnal4511117163
WSep 12 · 22:30J. Sebl43111011113J. Dohnal35812961
WSep 12 · 20:25J. Sebl4161111133J. Dohnal371196111
LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl4091011101J. Dohnal4411129123
WAug 28 · 19:25J. Sebl51116914113J. Dohnal49611111292
WAug 25 · 14:20J. Sebl45111112113J. Dohnal36791461
LAug 1 · 21:58J. Sebl156720J. Dohnal331111113
J. Sebl10
WOct 10 · 13:25Z. Muhlhauser2.2011116792J. Sebl1.61481111113LOct 10 · 10:55S. Holik2.0051111123J. Sebl1.731188101LOct 4 · 13:50J. Sebl2.0711941182J. Dohnal1.67911115113WOct 4 · 12:50J. Cousin2.753670J. Sebl1.401111113WOct 4 · 11:50J. Sebl2.5081111133J. Dohnal1.501148111WOct 4 · 10:20T. Rein2.10111491J. Sebl1.6711911113WOct 3 · 14:31D. Zelezny1.9241111452J. Sebl1.78117911113WOct 3 · 12:55J. Sebl1.331111113A. Brandtl Jr3.255580LOct 3 · 11:55J. Sebl1.83118411122D. Zelezny1.83911118143WOct 3 · 10:55J. Sebl2.20111116113V. Koutnik1.6111591192
J. Dohnal10
WOct 10 · 12:55S. Holik1.8311101181J. Dohnal1.8371213113WOct 10 · 11:25J. Dohnal2.1081115143Z. Muhlhauser1.6711713121LOct 5 · 22:05J. Dohnal1.8099100D. Zelezny1.901111123WOct 5 · 20:50D. Zelezny2.0010111111122J. Dohnal1.73125139143LOct 5 · 19:50J. Dohnal1.57611981J. Cousin2.2511711113WOct 5 · 18:20T. Rein2.506490J. Dohnal1.501111113WOct 4 · 13:50J. Sebl2.0711941182J. Dohnal1.67911115113WOct 4 · 12:20T. Rein2.5091161172J. Dohnal1.50116118113LOct 4 · 11:50J. Sebl2.5081111133J. Dohnal1.501148111WOct 4 · 10:50J. Dohnal1.573111118113J. Cousin2.25111391692
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