TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Przybyla vs Vladislav Reska 3-1 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 51 - H1 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118119711118––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:41 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Przybyla to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Przybyla above · Vladislav Reska below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 76 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Jan Przybyla at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jan Przybyla 13–16 Vladislav Reska Jan Przybyla has won 13 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:4154.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Reska
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-16 in 29
Reska
Wrong
gap of 3 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Przybyla 1453 vs Reska 1406
Przybyla
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Przybyla 40% vs Reska 60%
Reska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Przybyla 30% vs Reska 50%
Reska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Przybyla +1 · Reska +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Przybyla) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Przybyla form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrzybyla 1.833 / Reska 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Przybyla)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13272130
Przybyla1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Reska1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrzybyla5wins
AwayReska5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrzybyla100%5 of 5
AwayReska100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Przybyla5Reska5n = 10split evenly
S2Przybyla5Reska5n = 10split evenly
S3Przybyla4Reska6n = 10Reska took 6 of 10
S4Przybyla2Reska2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrzybylaReskaP − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match31.733.4−1.7per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrzybylaReskaBasisWin rate · lifetime242 / 474 vs 267 / 53651.1%49.8%242 / 474 vs 267 / 536Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PrzybylaPrzybyla 1.83/Reska 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Przybyla · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Przybyla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 06:45J. Przybyla4011117113V. Reska36891181
WSep 26 · 15:45J. Przybyla521111811113V. Reska4461311862
WSep 24 · 21:15J. Przybyla331111113V. Reska269890
LSep 24 · 20:15J. Przybyla35891171V. Reska3711114113
WSep 18 · 20:38J. Przybyla341111123V. Reska2477100
LSep 18 · 20:15J. Przybyla2111460V. Reska351311113
LSep 17 · 19:15J. Przybyla26311481V. Reska4111811113
WJun 29 · 21:15J. Przybyla331111113V. Reska246990
LJun 29 · 20:15J. Przybyla2510960V. Reska341211113
LJun 21 · 20:10J. Przybyla185940V. Reska331111113
J. Przybyla10
LOct 10 · 07:45J. Przybyla1.83310111192A. Drozd1.83111289113WOct 10 · 05:45J. Przybyla1.7311117113P. Jokiel2.00581171LOct 7 · 20:45J. Przybyla2.256860A. Kanak1.571111113LOct 7 · 20:15D. Branny2.0011711113J. Przybyla1.73711891LOct 7 · 19:15J. Przybyla1.914780D. Vitasek1.801111113WOct 7 · 17:45A. Kanak1.619811101J. Przybyla2.2011113123LOct 6 · 12:44T. Kindl1.449131012123J. Przybyla2.6311111210102LOct 6 · 12:15D. Pawlik1.9111119113J. Przybyla1.80761181LOct 6 · 11:15J. Przybyla2.63116315102R. Sedlacek1.449111113123LOct 6 · 09:45T. Kindl1.501111113J. Przybyla2.506690
V. Reska10
WOct 10 · 06:15A. Drozd2.1011591132V. Reska1.67711119113WOct 5 · 20:38V. Reska1.441111113T. Ogrocki2.638840LOct 5 · 20:15V. Reska1.677970K. Zeman2.101111113LOct 5 · 18:45K. Przeczek2.501111113V. Reska1.479870WOct 5 · 18:15T. Ogrocki2.1069120V. Reska1.651111143LOct 5 · 15:45T. Ogrocki2.38111158113V. Reska1.5399111182WOct 5 · 15:15O. Coufal2.251011661V. Reska1.5712811113LOct 5 · 14:15V. Reska1.67111181152M. Janik2.10913115113LSep 30 · 21:20V. Reska2.107680F. Theodor1.671111113WSep 30 · 20:15V. Reska1.80125711113K. Zeman1.91101111682
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