TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Ogrocki vs Vladislav Reska 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119119511811118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:37 and never touched: 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeVladislav Reska to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Vladislav Reska below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 94 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Vladislav Reska at 61.2%
94 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 12–17 Vladislav Reska Tomas Ogrocki has won 12 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:3761.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.0pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Reska
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-17 in 29
Reska
Wrong
gap of 5 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1409 vs Reska 1415
Reska
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 0% vs Reska 40%
Reska
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 30% vs Reska 50%
Reska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki -5 · Reska +1
Ogrocki
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Reska) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reska form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 2.375 / Reska 1.533
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Reska)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13247649
Ogrocki2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 66 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back30% 26 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 39
Reska1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 70 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it75% 51 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOgrocki3wins
AwayReska7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderReska leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgrocki25%1 of 4
AwayReska66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogrocki4Reska6n = 10Reska took 6 of 10
S2Ogrocki3Reska7n = 10Reska took 7 of 10
S3Ogrocki3Reska7n = 10Reska took 7 of 10
S4Ogrocki2Reska4n = 6Reska took 4 of 6
S5Ogrocki2Reska1n = 3Ogrocki took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricOgrockiReskaO − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.939.7−4.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiReskaBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 524 vs 264 / 52947.9%49.9%251 / 524 vs 264 / 529Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ReskaOgrocki 2.38/Reska 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Reska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ogrocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 13:45T. Ogrocki50613911113V. Reska49111111882
LSep 10 · 17:40T. Ogrocki2561180V. Reska351113113
LSep 5 · 12:40T. Ogrocki3411101121V. Reska4313127113
LSep 5 · 09:40T. Ogrocki238690V. Reska331111113
WAug 21 · 17:45T. Ogrocki50811119113V. Reska4411781172
LAug 18 · 17:40T. Ogrocki35118791V. Reska3961111113
LJul 22 · 17:40T. Ogrocki28115481V. Reska4291111113
LJul 16 · 17:40T. Ogrocki219570V. Reska331111113
WJul 2 · 18:45T. Ogrocki351311113V. Reska2811980
LJun 30 · 13:45T. Ogrocki48116511152V. Reska51511117173
T. Ogrocki10
WOct 5 · 16:25O. Coufal—6740T. Ogrocki—1111113LOct 5 · 14:45T. Ogrocki1.83101141M. Janik1.8312541LOct 5 · 13:45T. Ogrocki1.8058111152O. Coufal1.91111179113LOct 3 · 20:40J. Jnr2.631111113T. Ogrocki1.443910LOct 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.6713911462J. Matus2.1011111112113LOct 3 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.40981181J. Jnr2.7511116113LOct 3 · 17:40T. Ogrocki1.4412118882L. Krupnik Jr2.631081111113WOct 2 · 21:15B. Jonas1.83871191T. Ogrocki1.8311118113WOct 2 · 19:40T. Ogrocki2.00119912113D. Stefek1.73711111072LOct 2 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.83118791B. Jonas1.8391111113
V. Reska10
WOct 5 · 15:15O. Coufal2.251011661V. Reska1.5712811113LOct 5 · 14:15V. Reska1.67111181152M. Janik2.10913115113LSep 30 · 21:20V. Reska2.107680F. Theodor1.671111113WSep 30 · 20:15V. Reska1.80125711113K. Zeman1.91101111682LSep 30 · 18:45F. Theodor1.80111113143V. Reska1.9161311121WSep 30 · 18:15M. Raska1.809660V. Reska1.911111113LSep 29 · 21:15V. Reska1.805760F. Theodor1.911111113WSep 29 · 20:15F. Theodor1.918811111V. Reska1.8011119133LSep 29 · 19:15V. Reska2.101011114122D. Branny1.67129711143WSep 29 · 17:45L. Lasota1.679890V. Reska2.101111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.