TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Ogrocki vs Michal Janik 1-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 1
Set by set
101211544––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:39 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Final score unavailable, not graded hereMichal Janik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Pick
NoneHow it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Michal Janik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 4-4
Point 46 set 3, 4-4 · our read held Michal Janik at 54.0%
46 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 2–2 Michal Janik Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3954.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Janik
Not yet
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1409 vs Janik 1430
Janik
Not yet
both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 0% vs Janik 60%
Janik
Not yet
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 30% vs Janik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki -5 · Janik +1
Ogrocki
Not yet
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Janik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogrocki form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 1.833 / Janik 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Janik)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13247919
Ogrocki1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Janik1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeOgrocki2wins
AwayJanik2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgrockin = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayJanik50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogrocki0Janik4n = 4Janik took 4 of 4
S2Ogrocki2Janik2n = 4split evenly
S3Ogrocki1Janik3n = 4Janik took 3 of 4
S4Ogrocki2Janik1n = 3Ogrocki took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricOgrockiJanikO − JBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match39.540.8−1.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiJanikBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 524 vs 135 / 29947.9%45.2%251 / 524 vs 135 / 299Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JanikOgrocki 1.83/Janik 1.83
Not settled
What we said
54%
Janik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–1
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 25 · 12:15T. Ogrocki391311781M. Janik4015311113
WSep 19 · 15:15T. Ogrocki45661111113M. Janik4311117772
LJul 12 · 07:15T. Ogrocki279990M. Janik331111113
WJun 24 · 18:15T. Ogrocki473121011113M. Janik47111012862
T. Ogrocki10
WOct 5 · 16:25O. Coufal—6740T. Ogrocki—1111113WOct 5 · 15:45T. Ogrocki2.38111158113V. Reska1.5399111182LOct 5 · 13:45T. Ogrocki1.8058111152O. Coufal1.91111179113LOct 3 · 20:40J. Jnr2.631111113T. Ogrocki1.443910LOct 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.6713911462J. Matus2.1011111112113LOct 3 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.40981181J. Jnr2.7511116113LOct 3 · 17:40T. Ogrocki1.4412118882L. Krupnik Jr2.631081111113WOct 2 · 21:15B. Jonas1.83871191T. Ogrocki1.8311118113WOct 2 · 19:40T. Ogrocki2.00119912113D. Stefek1.73711111072LOct 2 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.83118791B. Jonas1.8391111113
M. Janik10
WOct 5 · 14:15V. Reska1.67111181152M. Janik2.10913115113LSep 29 · 21:15O. Skvor1.671111113M. Janik2.106770WSep 29 · 19:40D. Osvald1.91107111162M. Janik1.80121158113WSep 29 · 19:10K. Zeman1.831112891M. Janik1.8371411113LSep 29 · 18:10M. Janik1.8389100O. Skvor1.831111123LSep 29 · 16:43O. Skvor1.8371111113M. Janik1.83119591LSep 29 · 15:40M. Janik1.8012711772O. Skvor1.911011711113LSep 29 · 14:40M. Janik1.675590J. Sindler2.101111113LSep 29 · 13:40M. Janik1.83881111162M. Lorenc1.83111189183WSep 25 · 12:49M. Janik1.915111111113A. Drozd1.8011481392
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