TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Ogrocki vs Lukas Krupnik Jr 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210118811811811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:35 and never touched: 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Lukas Krupnik Jr below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 2-0
Point 81 set 5, 2-0 · our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 67.3%
81 points drawn · the score is 17 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 1–1 Lukas Krupnik Jr Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:3567.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Ogrocki
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1480 vs Krupnik Jr 1368
Ogrocki
Wrong
both rated, 112 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 60% vs Krupnik Jr 40%
Ogrocki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 70% vs Krupnik Jr 50%
Ogrocki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki +2 · Krupnik Jr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Ogrocki) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 1.444 / Krupnik Jr 2.625
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Ogrocki)-2.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13237429
Ogrocki1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 74 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it91% 39 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it74% 54 of 73
Krupnik Jr2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 84 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back33% 26 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeOgrocki1wins
AwayKrupnik Jr1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricOgrockiKrupnik JrO − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match30.032.0−2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiKrupnik JrBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 519 vs 253 / 47648.4%53.2%251 / 519 vs 253 / 476Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.740.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiOgrocki 1.44/Krupnik Jr 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krupnik Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 22 · 17:10T. Ogrocki351113113L. Krupnik Jr2881190
LSep 22 · 14:40T. Ogrocki2581250L. Krupnik Jr361114113
T. Ogrocki10
WOct 2 · 21:15B. Jonas1.83871191T. Ogrocki1.8311118113WOct 2 · 19:40T. Ogrocki2.00119912113D. Stefek1.73711111072LOct 2 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.83118791B. Jonas1.8391111113WOct 2 · 17:40T. Ogrocki1.3011118113R. Benesz3.40781191LOct 1 · 21:08T. Ogrocki2.50117881K. Przeczek1.5091111113WOct 1 · 19:40K. Przeczek1.7311991172T. Ogrocki2.00911113113WOct 1 · 19:10J. Vanous2.109101181T. Ogrocki1.6711123113WOct 1 · 18:10T. Ogrocki1.611111129113I. Jemelka2.2082141152LSep 26 · 17:19T. Ogrocki1.801189111J. Przybyla1.9181111133WSep 26 · 16:15M. Lorenc1.671181081T. Ogrocki2.1081112113
L. Krupnik Jr10
WOct 1 · 12:44P. Sturma1.8311119111L. Krupnik Jr1.8313911133LOct 1 · 12:15P. Sturma2.2051111123L. Krupnik Jr1.611166101LOct 1 · 11:15L. Krupnik Jr2.0010630D. Stefek1.731211113LOct 1 · 09:45P. Chlad1.801111123L. Krupnik Jr1.9157100WSep 27 · 21:09L. Krupnik Jr1.91911118113M. Dolezal1.8011781172WSep 27 · 19:40L. Krupnik Jr1.8311117113J. Oleksik1.83991161LSep 27 · 18:40L. Krupnik Jr1.67611681M. Dolezal2.1011811113WSep 27 · 17:40L. Krupnik Jr1.731111113J. Lysek2.005880LSep 26 · 09:13I. Jemelka1.361111113L. Krupnik Jr3.009970WSep 26 · 08:10P. Chvojka1.53681181L. Krupnik Jr2.3811115113
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