TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Przybyla vs Ales Drozd 2-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 51 - H1 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
3111012118119911
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:43 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Przybyla to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Przybyla above · Ales Drozd below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Jan Przybyla at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Jan Przybyla 5–3 Ales Drozd Ales Drozd has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:4354.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Drozd
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Przybyla
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Przybyla 1453 vs Drozd 1446
Przybyla
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Przybyla 40% vs Drozd 20%
Przybyla
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Przybyla 30% vs Drozd 60%
Drozd
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Przybyla +2 · Drozd -3
Drozd
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Przybyla) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Drozd form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrzybyla 1.833 / Drozd 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Przybyla)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13271750
Przybyla1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Drozd1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomePrzybyla5wins
AwayDrozd3wins
2 of 8 to a deciderPrzybyla leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrzybyla83.3%5 of 6
AwayDrozdn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Przybyla6Drozd2n = 8Przybyla took 6 of 8
S2Przybyla6Drozd2n = 8Przybyla took 6 of 8
S3Przybyla5Drozd3n = 8Przybyla took 5 of 8
S4Przybyla3Drozd2n = 5Przybyla took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricPrzybylaDrozdP − DBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match38.235.2+3.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrzybylaDrozdBasisWin rate · lifetime242 / 474 vs 151 / 29451.1%51.4%242 / 474 vs 151 / 294Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PrzybylaPrzybyla 1.83/Drozd 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Przybyla · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Drozd won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 10 · 07:45J. Przybyla44310111192A. Drozd51111289113
LMay 10 · 07:15J. Przybyla4511118872A. Drozd45391111113
WApr 17 · 06:45J. Przybyla331111113A. Drozd218670
WMar 12 · 18:25J. Przybyla4211119113A. Drozd36881191
WMar 12 · 15:45J. Przybyla49161111113A. Drozd441491381
WJan 19 · 06:45J. Przybyla331111113A. Drozd199370
LJan 5 · 09:15J. Przybyla26861111A. Drozd4011117113
WDec 8 · 10:15J. Przybyla341211113A. Drozd2610790
J. Przybyla10
WOct 10 · 06:45J. Przybyla1.8311117113V. Reska1.83891181WOct 10 · 05:45J. Przybyla1.7311117113P. Jokiel2.00581171LOct 7 · 20:45J. Przybyla2.256860A. Kanak1.571111113LOct 7 · 20:15D. Branny2.0011711113J. Przybyla1.73711891LOct 7 · 19:15J. Przybyla1.914780D. Vitasek1.801111113WOct 7 · 17:45A. Kanak1.619811101J. Przybyla2.2011113123LOct 6 · 12:44T. Kindl1.449131012123J. Przybyla2.6311111210102LOct 6 · 12:15D. Pawlik1.9111119113J. Przybyla1.80761181LOct 6 · 11:15J. Przybyla2.63116315102R. Sedlacek1.449111113123LOct 6 · 09:45T. Kindl1.501111113J. Przybyla2.506690
A. Drozd10
LOct 10 · 08:44V. Reska1.731211113A. Drozd2.0010850LOct 10 · 07:15P. Jokiel2.0011911113A. Drozd1.73611571LOct 10 · 06:15A. Drozd2.1011591132V. Reska1.67711119113LOct 7 · 13:09J. Sindler2.381411117113A. Drozd1.53126131192WOct 7 · 11:40A. Drozd1.91911118113M. Lorenc1.8011871152LOct 7 · 10:40A. Drozd1.44116711112J. Sindler2.63511118133WOct 7 · 09:40A. Drozd1.251351211113M. Kliment3.75111114972WSep 29 · 13:14A. Drozd1.7311116113O. Vaclahovsky2.00831161WSep 29 · 11:45A. Drozd1.40691111113M. Kliment2.7511118382WSep 29 · 10:45A. Drozd1.731111113J. Sindler2.008680
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