TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dominik Pawlik vs Jan Przybyla 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117116911118––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:10 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Przybyla to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Jan Przybyla below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 74 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Jan Przybyla at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 10–5 Jan Przybyla Jan Przybyla has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1054.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Przybyla
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-5 in 15
Pawlik
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1457 vs Przybyla 1485
Przybyla
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 40% vs Przybyla 60%
Przybyla
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 40% vs Przybyla 70%
Przybyla
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik -1 · Przybyla -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Przybyla) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.909 / Przybyla 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Przybyla)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13251873
Pawlik1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 56 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 54
Przybyla1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite48% won 41 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it81% 21 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it67% 30 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePawlik6wins
AwayPrzybyla4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik85.7%6 of 7
AwayPrzybyla100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik7Przybyla3n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S2Pawlik4Przybyla6n = 10Przybyla took 6 of 10
S3Pawlik4Przybyla6n = 10Przybyla took 6 of 10
S4Pawlik2Przybyla3n = 5Przybyla took 3 of 5
S5Pawlik3Przybyla1n = 4Pawlik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPawlikPrzybylaPawlik − PrzybylaBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.437.6+1.8per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikPrzybylaBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 518 vs 239 / 46548.3%51.4%250 / 518 vs 239 / 465Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PrzybylaPawlik 1.91/Przybyla 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Przybyla · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 08:40D. Pawlik501171110113J. Przybyla4021161292
WSep 7 · 07:10D. Pawlik621911811133J. Przybyla611713119112
WSep 5 · 08:44D. Pawlik50111189113J. Przybyla3963111182
LSep 5 · 08:15D. Pawlik229580J. Przybyla331111113
LAug 31 · 07:45D. Pawlik2510690J. Przybyla341211113
LAug 28 · 07:15D. Pawlik50111310972J. Przybyla538111211113
WJul 24 · 06:15D. Pawlik4313811113J. Przybyla361111861
WJul 2 · 16:15D. Pawlik351311113J. Przybyla2311480
WJun 20 · 08:40D. Pawlik341211113J. Przybyla2410770
LJun 20 · 06:40D. Pawlik239590J. Przybyla331111113
D. Pawlik10
LOct 6 · 10:45T. Kindl1.80811711113D. Pawlik1.9111811582WOct 6 · 10:15R. Sedlacek1.8011811272D. Pawlik1.918111110113WSep 30 · 08:38T. Kindl1.737111111182D. Pawlik2.00118138203LSep 30 · 08:10T. Kindl1.9113126113D. Pawlik1.8011101161LSep 30 · 07:10D. Pawlik2.2012101171R. Benes1.6114126113LSep 30 · 05:40R. Sedlacek1.8312911113D. Pawlik1.831011871LSep 29 · 13:18A. Cizek1.831111113D. Pawlik1.837560LSep 29 · 12:10D. Pawlik2.003116111A. Cizek1.7311611133WSep 29 · 10:40E. Precek1.6757100D. Pawlik2.101111123WSep 29 · 10:10M. Moravec1.5011119792D. Pawlik2.50881111113
J. Przybyla10
LOct 6 · 12:44T. Kindl1.449131012123J. Przybyla2.6311111210102LOct 6 · 11:15J. Przybyla2.63116315102R. Sedlacek1.449111113123LOct 6 · 09:45T. Kindl1.501111113J. Przybyla2.506690WSep 30 · 21:15J. Przybyla1.8311111110113D. Branny1.8379131292WSep 30 · 20:10D. Osvald1.57116791J. Przybyla2.2561111113WSep 30 · 19:10J. Przybyla2.00411711123D. Branny1.73116111102WSep 30 · 17:40L. Lasota1.67461281J. Przybyla2.10111110113LSep 26 · 21:20J. Przybyla1.5711115682P. Jokiel2.25721111113WSep 26 · 19:45K. Zeman1.80381161J. Przybyla1.9111114113WSep 26 · 19:15P. Jokiel1.9131111752J. Przybyla1.80119811113
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