TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Radek Sedlacek vs Dominik Pawlik 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1188111111210711
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeRadek Sedlacek to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Sedlacek above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 1-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 90 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Radek Sedlacek at 54.3%
90 points played in total.
H2H Radek Sedlacek 6–9 Dominik Pawlik Radek Sedlacek has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:0954.3%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.3pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sedlacek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Pawlik
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sedlacek 1573 vs Pawlik 1452
Sedlacek
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sedlacek 60% vs Pawlik 20%
Sedlacek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sedlacek 50% vs Pawlik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sedlacek +1 · Pawlik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sedlacek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSedlacek 1.80 / Pawlik 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sedlacek)-1.3pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13251716
Sedlacek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 45 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it67% 29 of 43
Pawlik1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 56 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSedlacek4wins
AwayPawlik6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSedlacekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPawlik75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sedlacek2Pawlik8n = 10Pawlik took 8 of 10
S2Sedlacek5Pawlik5n = 10split evenly
S3Sedlacek3Pawlik7n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S4Sedlacek4Pawlik3n = 7Sedlacek took 4 of 7
S5Sedlacek2Pawlik1n = 3Sedlacek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSedlacekPawlikS − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.438.3−3.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSedlacekPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 353 vs 249 / 51647%48.3%166 / 353 vs 249 / 516Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SedlacekSedlacek 1.80/Pawlik 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Sedlacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 05:40R. Sedlacek4312911113D. Pawlik361011871
WSep 24 · 10:10R. Sedlacek3851111113D. Pawlik27116191
LSep 14 · 07:45R. Sedlacek195770D. Pawlik331111113
LSep 9 · 06:10R. Sedlacek358611101D. Pawlik4311119123
WJul 27 · 09:10R. Sedlacek48121168113D. Pawlik50109111192
LJul 27 · 05:40R. Sedlacek208480D. Pawlik331111113
WJun 3 · 09:45R. Sedlacek41611211113D. Pawlik3511411542
LMay 25 · 14:40R. Sedlacek34711791D. Pawlik4011711113
LMay 20 · 09:20R. Sedlacek2210570D. Pawlik341211113
LMay 20 · 06:15R. Sedlacek44512211142D. Pawlik521110114163
R. Sedlacek10
WOct 6 · 11:45T. Kindl2.101113581R. Sedlacek1.6781511113WOct 6 · 11:15J. Przybyla2.63116315102R. Sedlacek1.449111113123WOct 6 · 08:38M. Moravec1.80137891R. Sedlacek1.91111111113LOct 6 · 08:10D. Velky Jr1.8071111133R. Sedlacek1.911187111WOct 6 · 07:10R. Sedlacek2.0011115113T. Krenek1.73881191LOct 6 · 05:40M. Moravec1.67101211123R. Sedlacek2.1012105101WOct 3 · 16:50A. Cizek2.603111061R. Sedlacek1.4411912113LOct 3 · 15:40M. Moravec1.80911148113R. Sedlacek1.91119121192LOct 3 · 15:10A. Cizek2.101111113R. Sedlacek1.676430LOct 3 · 14:10R. Sedlacek1.476101181M. Raska2.5011127113
D. Pawlik10
WOct 6 · 12:15D. Pawlik1.9111119113J. Przybyla1.80761181LOct 6 · 10:45T. Kindl1.80811711113D. Pawlik1.9111811582WSep 30 · 08:38T. Kindl1.737111111182D. Pawlik2.00118138203LSep 30 · 08:10T. Kindl1.9113126113D. Pawlik1.8011101161LSep 30 · 07:10D. Pawlik2.2012101171R. Benes1.6114126113LSep 30 · 05:40R. Sedlacek1.8312911113D. Pawlik1.831011871LSep 29 · 13:18A. Cizek1.831111113D. Pawlik1.837560LSep 29 · 12:10D. Pawlik2.003116111A. Cizek1.7311611133WSep 29 · 10:40E. Precek1.6757100D. Pawlik2.101111123WSep 29 · 10:10M. Moravec1.5011119792D. Pawlik2.50881111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.