TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Przybyla vs Radek Sedlacek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11961131115131012
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:06 and never touched: 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeRadek Sedlacek to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Przybyla above · Radek Sedlacek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 101 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Radek Sedlacek at 66.5%
101 points played in total.
H2H Jan Przybyla 0–5 Radek Sedlacek Jan Przybyla has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:0666.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Sedlacek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Sedlacek
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Przybyla 1494 vs Sedlacek 1559
Sedlacek
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Przybyla 80% vs Sedlacek 40%
Przybyla
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Przybyla 80% vs Sedlacek 40%
Przybyla
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Przybyla -1 · Sedlacek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Sedlacek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sedlacek form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrzybyla 2.625 / Sedlacek 1.444
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Sedlacek)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13251804
Przybyla2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 54 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back30% 18 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 26
Sedlacek1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 45 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it67% 29 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePrzybyla0wins
AwaySedlacek5wins
2 of 5 to a deciderSedlacek leads 5–0, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrzybylan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySedlacek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Przybyla2Sedlacek3n = 5Sedlacek took 3 of 5
S2Przybyla2Sedlacek3n = 5Sedlacek took 3 of 5
S3Przybyla1Sedlacek4n = 5Sedlacek took 4 of 5
S4Przybyla1Sedlacek3n = 4Sedlacek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricPrzybylaSedlacekP − SBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match32.643.2−10.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrzybylaSedlacekBasisWin rate · lifetime239 / 464 vs 166 / 35451.5%46.9%239 / 464 vs 166 / 354Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SedlacekPrzybyla 2.63/Sedlacek 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Sedlacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sedlacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 4 · 09:40J. Przybyla4711911972R. Sedlacek51911911113
LAug 24 · 13:45J. Przybyla31611681R. Sedlacek4211911113
LAug 10 · 09:15J. Przybyla168440R. Sedlacek331111113
LAug 10 · 07:15J. Przybyla28119441R. Sedlacek3851111113
LJun 1 · 19:15J. Przybyla4151331192R. Sedlacek521111118113
J. Przybyla10
LOct 6 · 12:15D. Pawlik1.9111119113J. Przybyla1.80761181LOct 6 · 09:45T. Kindl1.501111113J. Przybyla2.506690WSep 30 · 21:15J. Przybyla1.8311111110113D. Branny1.8379131292WSep 30 · 20:10D. Osvald1.57116791J. Przybyla2.2561111113WSep 30 · 19:10J. Przybyla2.00411711123D. Branny1.73116111102WSep 30 · 17:40L. Lasota1.67461281J. Przybyla2.10111110113LSep 26 · 21:20J. Przybyla1.5711115682P. Jokiel2.25721111113WSep 26 · 19:45K. Zeman1.80381161J. Przybyla1.9111114113WSep 26 · 19:15P. Jokiel1.9131111752J. Przybyla1.80119811113WSep 26 · 18:15J. Przybyla1.5311713113J. Vanous2.387111131
R. Sedlacek10
WOct 6 · 11:45T. Kindl2.101113581R. Sedlacek1.6781511113LOct 6 · 10:15R. Sedlacek1.8011811272D. Pawlik1.918111110113WOct 6 · 08:38M. Moravec1.80137891R. Sedlacek1.91111111113LOct 6 · 08:10D. Velky Jr1.8071111133R. Sedlacek1.911187111WOct 6 · 07:10R. Sedlacek2.0011115113T. Krenek1.73881191LOct 6 · 05:40M. Moravec1.67101211123R. Sedlacek2.1012105101WOct 3 · 16:50A. Cizek2.603111061R. Sedlacek1.4411912113LOct 3 · 15:40M. Moravec1.80911148113R. Sedlacek1.91119121192LOct 3 · 15:10A. Cizek2.101111113R. Sedlacek1.676430LOct 3 · 14:10R. Sedlacek1.476101181M. Raska2.5011127113
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