TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Patrik Jokiel vs Jan Przybyla 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
311119118711511
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:29 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeJan Przybyla to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Jokiel above · Jan Przybyla below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 87 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Jan Przybyla at 55.4%
87 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Jokiel 6–11 Jan Przybyla Patrik Jokiel has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:29What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Przybyla
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Przybyla
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jokiel 1291 vs Przybyla 1433
Przybyla
Correct
both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jokiel 40% vs Przybyla 80%
Przybyla
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jokiel 40% vs Przybyla 60%
Przybyla
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jokiel -2 · Przybyla +3
Przybyla
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Przybyla) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Przybyla form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJokiel 1.91 / Przybyla 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Przybyla)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13200651
Jokiel1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 74 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back36% 28 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Przybyla1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite46% won 40 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it81% 21 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it64% 28 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJokiel4wins
AwayPrzybyla6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderPrzybyla leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJokiel66.7%2 of 3
AwayPrzybyla71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jokiel3Przybyla7n = 10Przybyla took 7 of 10
S2Jokiel5Przybyla5n = 10split evenly
S3Jokiel3Przybyla7n = 10Przybyla took 7 of 10
S4Jokiel4Przybyla5n = 9Przybyla took 5 of 9
S5Jokiel4Przybyla2n = 6Jokiel took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJokielPrzybylaJ − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.444.3−1.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJokielPrzybylaBasisWin rate · lifetime213 / 468 vs 233 / 45645.5%51.1%213 / 468 vs 233 / 456Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PrzybylaJokiel 1.91/Przybyla 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Przybyla · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Przybyla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 12 · 15:45P. Jokiel52141081192J. Przybyla511212115113
LMay 2 · 07:45P. Jokiel357611111J. Przybyla4111116133
LApr 24 · 09:20P. Jokiel32611871J. Przybyla3911611113
WApr 24 · 06:15P. Jokiel521211711113J. Przybyla4514611772
LApr 13 · 07:15P. Jokiel3751110111J. Przybyla4211612133
WMar 24 · 07:10P. Jokiel561181011163J. Przybyla52911126142
WFeb 22 · 09:55P. Jokiel44111147113J. Przybyla4696111192
WFeb 22 · 08:40P. Jokiel47715113113J. Przybyla48111361172
LFeb 5 · 21:15P. Jokiel216690J. Przybyla331111113
LFeb 3 · 19:45P. Jokiel4898111192J. Przybyla46111158113
P. Jokiel10
WSep 26 · 20:15J. Vanous2.20781141P. Jokiel1.6111119113LSep 26 · 17:45K. Zeman1.73101112113P. Jokiel2.001291091LSep 24 · 21:10T. Ogrocki1.5061211113P. Jokiel2.501110491WSep 24 · 20:10R. Benesz2.00551161P. Jokiel1.7311111113LSep 24 · 19:10P. Jokiel2.63121178122T. Ogrocki1.441091111143WSep 24 · 17:40J. Vanous1.834680P. Jokiel1.831111113LSep 22 · 21:15T. Ogrocki1.441112113P. Jokiel2.6341050WSep 22 · 20:10R. Benesz1.8311114892P. Jokiel1.83991111113LSep 22 · 19:10P. Jokiel2.2554120T. Ogrocki1.571111143WSep 22 · 17:40J. Vanous1.734670P. Jokiel2.001111113
J. Przybyla10
WSep 26 · 19:45K. Zeman1.80381161J. Przybyla1.9111114113WSep 26 · 18:15J. Przybyla1.5311713113J. Vanous2.387111131WSep 26 · 17:19T. Ogrocki1.801189111J. Przybyla1.9181111133WSep 26 · 15:45V. Reska1.7361311862J. Przybyla2.001111811113LSep 26 · 15:15T. Ogrocki1.671291213113J. Przybyla2.101011141192WSep 26 · 14:15J. Przybyla1.57911117113M. Lorenc2.2511881152LSep 25 · 21:10O. Vaclahovsky1.8311117113J. Przybyla1.83861181WSep 25 · 19:45M. Henzel1.6710750J. Przybyla2.101211113WSep 25 · 19:15T. Ogrocki1.73641181J. Przybyla2.0011116113LSep 25 · 18:15J. Przybyla1.5381131122O. Vaclahovsky2.38117119113
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