TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ales Drozd vs Vladislav Reska 2-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 51 - H1 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117511911119311
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:09 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladislav Reska to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Drozd above · Vladislav Reska below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 88 set 5, 3-11 · our read held Vladislav Reska at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Ales Drozd 4–6 Vladislav Reska Ales Drozd has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0954.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Reska
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Reska
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Drozd 1434 vs Reska 1406
Drozd
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Drozd 60% vs Reska 40%
Drozd
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Drozd 60% vs Reska 40%
Drozd
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Drozd -1 · Reska +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Reska) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reska form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDrozd 2.10 / Reska 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Reska)-6.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13272111
Drozd2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 27 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back34% 11 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Reska1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 05)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 72 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it76% 54 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDrozd4wins
AwayReska6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderReska leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDrozd66.7%2 of 3
AwayReska71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Drozd3Reska7n = 10Reska took 7 of 10
S2Drozd5Reska5n = 10split evenly
S3Drozd4Reska6n = 10Reska took 6 of 10
S4Drozd4Reska4n = 8split evenly
S5Drozd2Reska2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDrozdReskaD − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.240.2−3.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDrozdReskaBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 293 vs 267 / 53651.2%49.8%150 / 293 vs 267 / 536Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ReskaDrozd 2.10/Reska 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Reska · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Reska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 06:15A. Drozd3911591132V. Reska49711119113
LSep 20 · 15:40A. Drozd351011771V. Reska3912511113
LAug 12 · 14:45A. Drozd238960V. Reska331111113
LJul 23 · 14:40A. Drozd4698111172V. Reska45111166113
LJul 20 · 15:15A. Drozd31812291V. Reska43111011113
WJul 19 · 11:10A. Drozd3741111113V. Reska36119881
LJul 9 · 17:10A. Drozd208390V. Reska331111113
WJul 9 · 15:45A. Drozd49911117113V. Reska4711971192
WFeb 7 · 15:45A. Drozd4211119113V. Reska33771181
WDec 27 · 09:15A. Drozd50119136113V. Reska44511111162
A. Drozd10
LOct 10 · 07:15P. Jokiel2.0011911113A. Drozd1.73611571LOct 7 · 13:09J. Sindler2.381411117113A. Drozd1.53126131192WOct 7 · 11:40A. Drozd1.91911118113M. Lorenc1.8011871152LOct 7 · 10:40A. Drozd1.44116711112J. Sindler2.63511118133WOct 7 · 09:40A. Drozd1.251351211113M. Kliment3.75111114972WSep 29 · 13:14A. Drozd1.7311116113O. Vaclahovsky2.00831161WSep 29 · 11:45A. Drozd1.40691111113M. Kliment2.7511118382WSep 29 · 10:45A. Drozd1.731111113J. Sindler2.008680WSep 29 · 09:45A. Drozd1.806111011113O. Vaclahovsky1.9111512682LSep 25 · 12:49M. Janik1.915111111113A. Drozd1.8011481392
V. Reska10
LOct 10 · 06:45J. Przybyla1.8311117113V. Reska1.83891181WOct 5 · 20:38V. Reska1.441111113T. Ogrocki2.638840LOct 5 · 20:15V. Reska1.677970K. Zeman2.101111113LOct 5 · 18:45K. Przeczek2.501111113V. Reska1.479870WOct 5 · 18:15T. Ogrocki2.1069120V. Reska1.651111143LOct 5 · 15:45T. Ogrocki2.38111158113V. Reska1.5399111182WOct 5 · 15:15O. Coufal2.251011661V. Reska1.5712811113LOct 5 · 14:15V. Reska1.67111181152M. Janik2.10913115113LSep 30 · 21:20V. Reska2.107680F. Theodor1.671111113WSep 30 · 20:15V. Reska1.80125711113K. Zeman1.91101111682
Upcoming Matches
A. Drozd
Nothing scheduled
V. Reska
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