TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Arsenii Lobanov vs Yaroslav Kovshun 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118119––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:59 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeArsenii Lobanov to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingArsenii Lobanov above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 59 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Arsenii Lobanov at 54.1%
59 points played in total.
H2H Arsenii Lobanov 12–7 Yaroslav Kovshun Yaroslav Kovshun has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:5954.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lobanov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-7 in 19
Lobanov
Correct
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobanov 1559 vs Kovshun 1649
Kovshun
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobanov 0% vs Kovshun 60%
Kovshun
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobanov 20% vs Kovshun 60%
Kovshun
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobanov -7 · Kovshun -2
Lobanov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Lobanov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lobanov form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobanov 1.727 / Kovshun 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lobanov)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270699
Lobanov1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Oct 03) · back after a break
Lost last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 19 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it72% 13 of 18
Kovshun2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 56 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLobanov4wins
AwayKovshun6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLobanov100%3 of 3
AwayKovshun85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobanov3Kovshun7n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S2Lobanov5Kovshun5n = 10split evenly
S3Lobanov6Kovshun4n = 10Lobanov took 6 of 10
S4Lobanov2Kovshun4n = 6Kovshun took 4 of 6
S5Lobanov2Kovshun2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobanovKovshunL − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.737.4+0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobanovKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 127 vs 344 / 64350.4%53.5%64 / 127 vs 344 / 643Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LobanovLobanov 1.73/Kovshun 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Lobanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lobanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 3 · 04:30A. Lobanov4471111962Y. Kovshun44113811113
WAug 23 · 08:00A. Lobanov461111112113Y. Kovshun3971351132
LJul 31 · 09:05A. Lobanov31491171Y. Kovshun4111118113
WJul 25 · 05:35A. Lobanov4211119113Y. Kovshun28561161
LJul 24 · 10:35A. Lobanov249690Y. Kovshun331111113
WJul 4 · 10:00A. Lobanov50811119113Y. Kovshun4411891152
LOct 19 · 08:05A. Lobanov194780Y. Kovshun331111113
LSep 6 · 04:30A. Lobanov44811101142Y. Kovshun45116125113
WMay 7 · 12:10A. Lobanov391117113Y. Kovshun3091560
A. Lobanov10
WOct 10 · 06:35A. Lobanov1.5712911163V. Bilobrov2.2510118141LOct 3 · 10:30A. Lobanov1.9112430I. Efimenko1.801411113LOct 3 · 09:00A. Lobanov1.5312116882V. Bilobrov2.381031111113LOct 3 · 07:30A. Lobanov2.0061050O. Tymofeev1.731112113LOct 3 · 06:00A. Lobanov1.80101880V. Kryvenko1.911220113LOct 3 · 04:30A. Lobanov1.6171111962Y. Kovshun2.20113811113LAug 23 · 11:30A. Droshchynskyi1.83117411113A. Lobanov1.8371111722LAug 23 · 10:00A. Lobanov1.91115111152Y. Holoborodko1.80411313113WAug 23 · 08:00Y. Kovshun2.2071351132A. Lobanov1.611111112113WAug 23 · 06:00O. Varlamov2.507590A. Lobanov1.501111113
Y. Kovshun10
WOct 10 · 07:05A. Troyan2.20611115132Y. Kovshun1.61116911153LOct 9 · 12:05Y. Kovshun1.5788110O. Karpenko2.251111133LOct 9 · 10:05Y. Volkov2.1011911113Y. Kovshun1.67711981WOct 9 · 08:05Y. Holoborodko1.7371090Y. Kovshun2.001112113WOct 9 · 07:05Y. Kovshun1.53111199153A. Troyan2.38371111132WOct 9 · 06:05V. Kolesnykov2.6391070Y. Kovshun1.441112113WOct 6 · 11:35V. Bilobrov2.3861080Y. Kovshun1.531112113LOct 6 · 10:35A. Troyan2.381111113Y. Kovshun1.538970WOct 3 · 04:30A. Lobanov1.6171111962Y. Kovshun2.20113811113LAug 23 · 08:00Y. Kovshun2.2071351132A. Lobanov1.611111112113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.