TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Kolesnykov vs Yaroslav Kovshun 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111012711––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:04 and never touched: 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Kolesnykov above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 60 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 66.9%
60 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Kolesnykov 3–9 Yaroslav Kovshun Valerii Kolesnykov has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0466.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kovshun
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-9 in 12
Kovshun
Correct
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolesnykov 1569 vs Kovshun 1660
Kovshun
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolesnykov 60% vs Kovshun 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolesnykov 50% vs Kovshun 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolesnykov +1 · Kovshun +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Kovshun) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolesnykov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolesnykov 2.625 / Kovshun 1.444
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Kovshun)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13265990
Kolesnykov2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 05)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 31 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Kovshun1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 115 of 191
Up 2–0, closes it93% 52 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it78% 79 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolesnykov3wins
AwayKovshun7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKovshun leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolesnykov66.7%2 of 3
AwayKovshun85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolesnykov3Kovshun7n = 10Kovshun took 7 of 10
S2Kolesnykov1Kovshun9n = 10Kovshun took 9 of 10
S3Kolesnykov2Kovshun8n = 10Kovshun took 8 of 10
S4Kolesnykov4Kovshun2n = 6Kolesnykov took 4 of 6
S5Kolesnykov3Kovshun1n = 4Kolesnykov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolesnykovKovshunKolesnykov − KovshunBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.339.9−5.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolesnykovKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime347 / 655 vs 342 / 63953%53.5%347 / 655 vs 342 / 639Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunKolesnykov 2.63/Kovshun 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 9 · 06:05V. Kolesnykov2691070Y. Kovshun341112113
LOct 2 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov4591161182Y. Kovshun48116119113
LSep 15 · 09:00V. Kolesnykov33861181Y. Kovshun3811115113
LJul 28 · 09:05V. Kolesnykov144370Y. Kovshun331111113
LJun 26 · 05:35V. Kolesnykov2771190Y. Kovshun351113113
WMay 28 · 09:35V. Kolesnykov48871111113Y. Kovshun4411116792
WMay 22 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov47117711113Y. Kovshun4171111842
LMay 14 · 10:30V. Kolesnykov331157101Y. Kovshun4171111123
LMay 4 · 10:30V. Kolesnykov2238110Y. Kovshun351111133
WFeb 19 · 10:05V. Kolesnykov48114811143Y. Kovshun50711119122
V. Kolesnykov10
WOct 5 · 10:30O. Volynets2.109580V. Kolesnykov1.671111113LOct 5 · 09:30V. Kolesnykov1.4088111162A. Kovalenko2.75111147113WOct 5 · 08:30V. Kolesnykov1.441111113E. Populovskyi2.637760WOct 5 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov1.368111011113O. Leonenko3.0011412992LOct 5 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov1.67971111102S. Solomko2.10111145123WOct 2 · 10:04V. Kolesnykov1.83111311143O. Karpenko1.8361113121WOct 2 · 08:00Y. Volkov1.91101150V. Kolesnykov1.801213113LOct 2 · 07:00V. Kolesnykov3.50114941A. Troyan1.2871111113LOct 2 · 06:00O. Karpenko1.83591111113V. Kolesnykov1.8311118692LOct 2 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.6391161182Y. Kovshun1.44116119113
Y. Kovshun10
WOct 6 · 11:35V. Bilobrov2.3861080Y. Kovshun1.531112113LOct 6 · 10:35A. Troyan2.381111113Y. Kovshun1.538970WOct 6 · 09:05A. Martyniuk2.2511760Y. Kovshun1.571311113WOct 6 · 07:05S. Kyienko1.6791141182Y. Kovshun2.10115115113LOct 6 · 05:05Y. Volkov1.83115155113Y. Kovshun1.83511131162WOct 5 · 11:05Y. Volkov1.839111111102Y. Kovshun1.83114413123LOct 5 · 10:38Y. Kovshun1.91117751Y. Volkov1.8071111113WOct 5 · 09:05Y. Kovshun1.671111113O. Karpenko2.107880WOct 5 · 08:33S. Hryhorenko2.50111941Y. Kovshun1.5091111113WOct 2 · 05:00V. Kolesnykov2.6391161182Y. Kovshun1.44116119113
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