TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yevhenii Holoborodko vs Yaroslav Kovshun 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111012911––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:47 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYevhenii Holoborodko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Yaroslav Kovshun @ 2.10 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingYevhenii Holoborodko above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 60 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Yevhenii Holoborodko at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Yevhenii Holoborodko 12–8 Yaroslav Kovshun Yaroslav Kovshun has won 8 of their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pick
Sealed 06:47Sent to Pro: Yaroslav Kovshun @ 2.10 · Won
54.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Holoborodko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-8 in 20
Holoborodko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holoborodko 1548 vs Kovshun 1672
Kovshun
Correct
both rated, 124 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holoborodko 60% vs Kovshun 80%
Kovshun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holoborodko 40% vs Kovshun 70%
Kovshun
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holoborodko +3 · Kovshun +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Holoborodko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovshun form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoloborodko 1.727 / Kovshun 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Holoborodko)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13265832
Holoborodko1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 99 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it89% 41 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it67% 65 of 97
Kovshun2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 55 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoloborodko5wins
AwayKovshun5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoloborodko75%3 of 4
AwayKovshun66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holoborodko4Kovshun6n = 10Kovshun took 6 of 10
S2Holoborodko4Kovshun6n = 10Kovshun took 6 of 10
S3Holoborodko6Kovshun4n = 10Holoborodko took 6 of 10
S4Holoborodko6Kovshun3n = 9Holoborodko took 6 of 9
S5Holoborodko1Kovshun2n = 3Kovshun took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoloborodkoKovshunH − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.940.1+0.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoloborodkoKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 695 vs 343 / 64050.9%53.6%354 / 695 vs 343 / 640Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunHoloborodko 1.73/Kovshun 2.00
Hit
What we said
54%
Holoborodko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Yaroslav Kovshun @ 2.10 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
0–3
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 10:30Y. Holoborodko521111117123Y. Kovshun43451311102
LAug 23 · 11:00Y. Holoborodko42101161142Y. Kovshun43124115113
WAug 16 · 06:30Y. Holoborodko49151112113Y. Kovshun351751031
WAug 14 · 09:35Y. Holoborodko4181111113Y. Kovshun31116771
LAug 9 · 06:00Y. Holoborodko47117413122Y. Kovshun547111111143
WAug 8 · 11:10Y. Holoborodko45111013113Y. Kovshun378121161
LAug 6 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko155730Y. Kovshun331111113
LAug 2 · 09:05Y. Holoborodko33791161Y. Kovshun3811115113
LJul 17 · 10:00Y. Holoborodko4111612121Y. Kovshun48131110143
WJul 12 · 06:30Y. Holoborodko4411912123Y. Kovshun3981110101
Y. Holoborodko10
WOct 9 · 06:35Y. Holoborodko1.401111113O. Karpenko2.756490WOct 9 · 05:05Y. Holoborodko1.5711115113A. Troyan2.25681141WOct 8 · 17:40V. Shvidkiy1.5711119592Y. Holoborodko2.25841111113LOct 8 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.503920A. Zozulia1.501111113LOct 8 · 14:10A. Droshchynskyi1.331111113Y. Holoborodko3.254650LOct 8 · 12:10O. Kuzyshyn1.36118119113Y. Holoborodko3.0081191192WOct 8 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.83591161Y. Holoborodko1.8311116113LOct 7 · 17:40A. Zozulia1.441111511113Y. Holoborodko2.6377111342LOct 7 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.614990V. Ishchuk2.201111113LOct 7 · 14:10O. Zhyrnov1.4011117113Y. Holoborodko2.75731181
Y. Kovshun10
WOct 9 · 07:05Y. Kovshun1.53111199153A. Troyan2.38371111132WOct 9 · 06:05V. Kolesnykov2.6391070Y. Kovshun1.441112113WOct 6 · 11:35V. Bilobrov2.3861080Y. Kovshun1.531112113LOct 6 · 10:35A. Troyan2.381111113Y. Kovshun1.538970WOct 6 · 09:05A. Martyniuk2.2511760Y. Kovshun1.571311113WOct 6 · 07:05S. Kyienko1.6791141182Y. Kovshun2.10115115113LOct 6 · 05:05Y. Volkov1.83115155113Y. Kovshun1.83511131162WOct 5 · 11:05Y. Volkov1.839111111102Y. Kovshun1.83114413123LOct 5 · 10:38Y. Kovshun1.91117751Y. Volkov1.8071111113WOct 5 · 09:05Y. Kovshun1.671111113O. Karpenko2.107880
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