TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Osadchyi vs Dmytro Patalakha 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210118112––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:56 and never touched: 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Osadchyi to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Dmytro Patalakha below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 54 set 3, 11-2 · our read held Oleksandr Osadchyi at 63.3%
54 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 7–0 Dmytro Patalakha Dmytro Patalakha has won 0 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5663.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 6.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Osadchyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-0 in 7
Osadchyi
Correct
gap of 7 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1432 vs Patalakha 1474
Patalakha
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 40% vs Patalakha 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 40% vs Patalakha 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi -2 · Patalakha -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Osadchyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osadchyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 1.444 / Patalakha 2.625
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Osadchyi)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270447
Osadchyi1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 06)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 114 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it97% 60 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it78% 82 of 105
Patalakha2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 13 days ago (Sep 27) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 17 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back28% 8 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeOsadchyi7wins
AwayPatalakha0wins
3 of 7 to a deciderOsadchyi leads 7–0, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsadchyi100%5 of 5
AwayPatalakhan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osadchyi5Patalakha2n = 7Osadchyi took 5 of 7
S2Osadchyi4Patalakha3n = 7Osadchyi took 4 of 7
S3Osadchyi6Patalakha1n = 7Osadchyi took 6 of 7
S4Osadchyi3Patalakha2n = 5Osadchyi took 3 of 5
S5Osadchyi3Patalakha0n = 3Osadchyi took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricOsadchyiPatalakhaO − PBasisWins70+7in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match43.033.3+9.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiPatalakhaBasisWin rate · lifetime449 / 870 vs 119 / 25051.6%47.6%449 / 870 vs 119 / 250Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OsadchyiOsadchyi 1.44/Patalakha 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Osadchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Osadchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 27 · 06:50O. Osadchyi50811911113D. Patalakha3911511662
WSep 26 · 18:30O. Osadchyi52814118113D. Patalakha49111291162
WAug 2 · 10:30O. Osadchyi45111111123D. Patalakha338132101
WAug 1 · 17:30O. Osadchyi331111113D. Patalakha126420
WJul 26 · 11:50O. Osadchyi48117118113D. Patalakha4351191172
WJul 25 · 16:30O. Osadchyi4011711113D. Patalakha35711981
WJul 11 · 17:30O. Osadchyi331111113D. Patalakha229850
O. Osadchyi10
WOct 10 · 15:00O. Osadchyi1.251215133E. Populovskyi3.751013110WOct 10 · 13:30O. Osadchyi1.50991111113A. Kovalenko2.5011117572LOct 6 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.671511781I. Emets2.1017811113LOct 6 · 09:00O. Osadchyi2.639101181A. Kotiash1.4411123113WOct 6 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.911111113O. Leonenko1.809880LOct 6 · 06:00O. Osadchyi1.804880A. Kurtenko1.911111113WOct 6 · 04:30O. Osadchyi1.671191111113O. Volynets2.1081113952LOct 4 · 12:20A. Martyniuk1.3611911113O. Osadchyi3.00811441WOct 4 · 11:20A. Kovalenko2.258930O. Osadchyi1.571111113LOct 4 · 09:50S. Solomko1.5711111113O. Osadchyi2.25491131
D. Patalakha10
LOct 10 · 14:00E. Populovskyi2.6311126103D. Patalakha1.447101181LSep 27 · 10:48D. Patalakha3.40811111142O. Tymofeev1.30111337113LSep 27 · 09:50O. Tymofeev1.30114115113D. Patalakha3.4091151142WSep 27 · 08:20A. Kurtenko1.67911118102D. Patalakha2.10117911123LSep 27 · 06:50O. Osadchyi1.40811911113D. Patalakha2.7511511662WSep 27 · 05:50S. Solomko1.918780D. Patalakha1.801111113LSep 26 · 18:30O. Osadchyi1.36814118113D. Patalakha3.00111291162WSep 26 · 17:30S. Solomko1.801112351D. Patalakha1.9171411113LSep 26 · 16:00B. Zaika1.919111193D. Patalakha1.80119731LSep 26 · 14:00O. Tymofeev1.301112113D. Patalakha3.4071040
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