TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Leos Havrda vs Pavel Kulhanek 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811811116119113
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLeos Havrda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLeos Havrda above · Pavel Kulhanek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 89 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Leos Havrda at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Leos Havrda 10–6 Pavel Kulhanek Pavel Kulhanek has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Havrda beat Kulhanek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Havrda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Havrda
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Havrda 1249 vs Kulhanek 1292
Kulhanek
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Havrda 60% vs Kulhanek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Havrda 60% vs Kulhanek 30%
Havrda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Havrda +3 · Kulhanek +2
Havrda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Havrda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHavrda 1.80 / Kulhanek 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Havrda)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13270352
Havrda1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 33 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it83% 25 of 30
Kulhanek1.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 37 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back13% 5 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHavrda7wins
AwayKulhanek3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHavrda leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHavrda100%4 of 4
AwayKulhanek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Havrda4Kulhanek6n = 10Kulhanek took 6 of 10
S2Havrda6Kulhanek4n = 10Havrda took 6 of 10
S3Havrda7Kulhanek3n = 10Havrda took 7 of 10
S4Havrda4Kulhanek1n = 5Havrda took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHavrdaKulhanekH − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.632.6+2.0per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHavrdaKulhanekBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 492 vs 207 / 39745.5%52.1%224 / 492 vs 207 / 397Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HavrdaHavrda 1.80/Kulhanek 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Havrda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Havrda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 14:30L. Havrda4181111113P. Kulhanek36119791
LJun 29 · 06:30L. Havrda327114101P. Kulhanek4311911123
WMay 20 · 16:59L. Havrda4211911113P. Kulhanek36911971
WMay 20 · 16:30L. Havrda341211113P. Kulhanek2110560
WFeb 3 · 18:02L. Havrda331111113P. Kulhanek206680
WFeb 3 · 15:30L. Havrda48661111143P. Kulhanek47111185122
WJan 8 · 15:00L. Havrda4291111113P. Kulhanek33119761
LDec 19 · 18:30L. Havrda2271050P. Kulhanek341112113
WDec 19 · 17:30L. Havrda341112113P. Kulhanek2351080
LDec 14 · 12:30L. Havrda189270P. Kulhanek331111113
L. Havrda10
WOct 9 · 16:00M. Barta1.4451151182L. Havrda2.63117114113WOct 9 · 15:00J. Svec1.615660L. Havrda2.201111113WOct 9 · 14:30L. Havrda2.1081111113P. Kulhanek1.67119791LOct 4 · 12:58L. Havel1.441111113L. Havrda2.636350LOct 4 · 12:00M. Barta1.801211113L. Havrda1.9110780LOct 4 · 11:00L. Havel1.40611116133L. Havrda2.75118711112LOct 4 · 10:30L. Havrda2.63811761V. Hruska Sr1.4411811113WOct 3 · 03:30L. Havrda1.731211113J. Potensky2.0010260WOct 3 · 02:30L. Havrda1.911111113J. Potensky1.807950WOct 3 · 01:30V. Stach1.67119391L. Havrda2.1061111113
P. Kulhanek10
WOct 9 · 16:30J. Svec2.759111081P. Kulhanek1.4011712113WOct 9 · 15:30P. Kulhanek1.401111113M. Barta2.759880LOct 9 · 14:30L. Havrda2.1081111113P. Kulhanek1.67119791LSep 18 · 13:30M. Stefek1.50941111113P. Kulhanek2.4511117942WSep 18 · 12:30P. Kulhanek1.83941111113Z. Drabek1.8311117572LSep 18 · 11:00P. Kulhanek2.3840121172M. Stefek1.531111107113LSep 18 · 10:00Z. Zikmunda1.441141111133P. Kulhanek2.63611313112LSep 16 · 12:59M. Chalupnicek1.441111113P. Kulhanek2.635570LSep 16 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek1.4491111113P. Kulhanek2.63118551LSep 16 · 11:00J. Strnad1.731211113P. Kulhanek2.0010790
Upcoming Matches
L. Havrda
P. Kulhanek
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.