TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Arsenii Lobanov vs Volodymyr Bilobrov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12109111181614––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:20 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeArsenii Lobanov to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingArsenii Lobanov above · Volodymyr Bilobrov below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 16-14
Point 91 set 4, 16-14 · our read held Arsenii Lobanov at 59.3%
91 points played in total.
H2H Arsenii Lobanov 5–3 Volodymyr Bilobrov Volodymyr Bilobrov has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2059.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Lobanov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Lobanov
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobanov 1588 vs Bilobrov 1556
Lobanov
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobanov 20% vs Bilobrov 40%
Bilobrov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobanov 30% vs Bilobrov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobanov +1 · Bilobrov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Lobanov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lobanov form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobanov 1.571 / Bilobrov 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Lobanov)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270274
Lobanov1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 19 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it72% 13 of 18
Bilobrov2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 29 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back16% 6 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeLobanov5wins
AwayBilobrov3wins
4 of 8 to a deciderLobanov leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLobanov66.7%2 of 3
AwayBilobrov40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobanov3Bilobrov5n = 8Bilobrov took 5 of 8
S2Lobanov7Bilobrov1n = 8Lobanov took 7 of 8
S3Lobanov5Bilobrov3n = 8Lobanov took 5 of 8
S4Lobanov5Bilobrov3n = 8Lobanov took 5 of 8
S5Lobanov1Bilobrov3n = 4Bilobrov took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricLobanovBilobrovL − BBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match43.439.8+3.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobanovBilobrovBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 127 vs 88 / 19452%45.4%66 / 127 vs 88 / 194Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.035.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LobanovLobanov 1.57/Bilobrov 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Lobanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lobanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WOct 10 · 06:35A. Lobanov4812911163V. Bilobrov4310118141
LOct 3 · 09:00A. Lobanov4512116882V. Bilobrov461031111113
LOct 19 · 07:05A. Lobanov4991181472V. Bilobrov541191112113
WSep 6 · 10:00A. Lobanov4181111113V. Bilobrov33119761
LAug 9 · 08:30A. Lobanov4081111912V. Bilobrov44117411113
WJun 1 · 05:05A. Lobanov3711123113V. Bilobrov316101141
WApr 27 · 06:00A. Lobanov3961111113V. Bilobrov24119221
WFeb 16 · 08:30A. Lobanov48911115123V. Bilobrov43119211102
A. Lobanov10
WOct 10 · 05:05A. Lobanov1.731111113Y. Kovshun2.009890LOct 3 · 10:30A. Lobanov1.9112430I. Efimenko1.801411113LOct 3 · 09:00A. Lobanov1.5312116882V. Bilobrov2.381031111113LOct 3 · 07:30A. Lobanov2.0061050O. Tymofeev1.731112113LOct 3 · 06:00A. Lobanov1.80101880V. Kryvenko1.911220113LOct 3 · 04:30A. Lobanov1.6171111962Y. Kovshun2.20113811113LAug 23 · 11:30A. Droshchynskyi1.83117411113A. Lobanov1.8371111722LAug 23 · 10:00A. Lobanov1.91115111152Y. Holoborodko1.80411313113WAug 23 · 08:00Y. Kovshun2.2071351132A. Lobanov1.611111112113WAug 23 · 06:00O. Varlamov2.507590A. Lobanov1.501111113
V. Bilobrov10
LOct 10 · 05:35I. Efimenko1.251511113V. Bilobrov3.7513360LOct 6 · 11:35V. Bilobrov2.3861080Y. Kovshun1.531112113WOct 6 · 09:35Y. Volkov1.447720V. Bilobrov2.631111113LOct 6 · 08:35V. Bilobrov3.407121091A. Troyan1.30111012113WOct 6 · 07:35A. Martyniuk2.75105100V. Bilobrov1.401211123WOct 6 · 06:05V. Bilobrov1.361111113S. Kyienko3.007870LOct 3 · 11:00V. Bilobrov2.63119111172Y. Kovshun1.44311136113WOct 3 · 09:00A. Lobanov1.5312116882V. Bilobrov2.381031111113LOct 3 · 08:00V. Bilobrov2.7588111162V. Kryvenko1.40111169113LOct 3 · 07:00I. Efimenko1.251111113V. Bilobrov3.757980
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