TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Kotiash vs Ivan Fashchevskyi 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012118119911116
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:01 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeIvan Fashchevskyi to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Kotiash above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 98 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Ivan Fashchevskyi at 64.5%
98 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotiash 0–2 Ivan Fashchevskyi Andrii Kotiash has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:0164.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Fashchevskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kotiash 1454 vs Fashchevskyi 1464
Fashchevskyi
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotiash 80% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
Kotiash
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotiash 50% vs Fashchevskyi 30%
Kotiash
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotiash -1 · Fashchevskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Fashchevskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotiash 2.625 / Fashchevskyi 1.444
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Fashchevskyi)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266145
Kotiash2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 50 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back25% 21 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back15% 8 of 55
Fashchevskyi1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 66 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it79% 45 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKotiash0wins
AwayFashchevskyi2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderFashchevskyi leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricKotiashFashchevskyiK − FBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match31.541.5−10.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotiashFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 467 vs 319 / 65446.7%48.8%218 / 467 vs 319 / 654Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FashchevskyiKotiash 2.63/Fashchevskyi 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Fashchevskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kotiash won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LOct 4 · 07:55A. Kotiash4046111362I. Fashchevskyi501111611113
LOct 3 · 17:25A. Kotiash238690I. Fashchevskyi331111113
A. Kotiash10
WOct 9 · 21:45A. Kotiash2.38481113113O. Gazhula1.53111171172LOct 6 · 11:00A. Kotiash2.001113731O. Volynets1.73131111113WOct 6 · 09:00O. Osadchyi2.639101181A. Kotiash1.4411123113WOct 6 · 08:00A. Kotiash1.67613116113A. Kurtenko2.10111171192WOct 6 · 07:00I. Emets1.918660A. Kotiash1.801111113WOct 6 · 05:30A. Kotiash1.53661211113O. Leonenko2.38111110482LOct 4 · 10:55A. Kotiash3.008940D. Palii1.361111113WOct 4 · 08:55V. Kuzmych1.5374110A. Kotiash2.381111133LOct 4 · 07:55A. Kotiash2.2546111362I. Fashchevskyi1.581111611113LOct 4 · 06:55O. Gazhula1.61111116113A. Kotiash2.20861841
I. Fashchevskyi10
WOct 7 · 11:35I. Pytsko1.4411851172I. Fashchevskyi2.63911119113LOct 7 · 10:05I. Fashchevskyi2.2514119462D. Maltsev1.571261111113LOct 7 · 08:05Y. Tebenko1.531111123I. Fashchevskyi2.3898100WOct 7 · 06:05O. Storozhenko1.6171180I. Fashchevskyi2.201113113LOct 7 · 05:05M. Potapov1.8012117113I. Fashchevskyi1.911071151LOct 6 · 19:05D. Maltsev1.6112117113I. Fashchevskyi2.201091141LOct 6 · 17:35I. Fashchevskyi2.5081180I. Pytsko1.501113113LOct 6 · 15:35O. Storozhenko1.61711611113I. Fashchevskyi2.2011911742LOct 6 · 13:35V. Moshovskyi1.7311412113I. Fashchevskyi2.009111081WOct 4 · 07:55A. Kotiash2.2546111362I. Fashchevskyi1.581111611113
Upcoming Matches
A. Kotiash
I. Fashchevskyi
Oct 10 · 00:15I. Fashchevskyi2.00V. Korobko1.73—Oct 10 · 01:45I. Fashchevskyi2.38O. Gazhula1.53—Oct 10 · 02:45I. Fashchevskyi2.20M. Slozka1.61—Oct 10 · 12:35I. Fashchevskyi2.00M. Potapov1.73—Oct 10 · 13:35I. Fashchevskyi2.20M. Slozka1.61—Oct 10 · 15:35I. Fashchevskyi2.25D. Maltsev1.57—Oct 10 · 17:35I. Fashchevskyi2.50I. Pytsko1.50—Oct 10 · 19:05I. Fashchevskyi2.00D. Palii1.73—
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