TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Seliuchenko vs Anatolii Nazarov 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115115116––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:59 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Seliuchenko to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Oleksandr Seliuchenko @ 1.50 · Won
How it is goingOleksandr Seliuchenko above · Anatolii Nazarov below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 49 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Oleksandr Seliuchenko at 60.1%
49 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Seliuchenko 16–10 Anatolii Nazarov Anatolii Nazarov has won 10 of their 26 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 19:59Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Seliuchenko @ 1.50 · Won
60.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 6.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Seliuchenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-10 in 26
Seliuchenko
Correct
gap of 6 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Seliuchenko 1576 vs Nazarov 1608
Nazarov
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Seliuchenko 20% vs Nazarov 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Seliuchenko 30% vs Nazarov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Seliuchenko -4 · Nazarov -1
Seliuchenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Seliuchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nazarov form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSeliuchenko 1.50 / Nazarov 2.50
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Seliuchenko)-6.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266139
Seliuchenko1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Oct 02) · back after a break
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 74 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it75% 54 of 72
Nazarov2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 44 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back24% 20 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back12% 5 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSeliuchenko6wins
AwayNazarov4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSeliuchenko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSeliuchenko75%6 of 8
AwayNazarovn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Seliuchenko8Nazarov2n = 10Seliuchenko took 8 of 10
S2Seliuchenko3Nazarov7n = 10Nazarov took 7 of 10
S3Seliuchenko3Nazarov7n = 10Nazarov took 7 of 10
S4Seliuchenko3Nazarov6n = 9Nazarov took 6 of 9
S5Seliuchenko4Nazarov0n = 4Seliuchenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeliuchenkoNazarovS − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.342.4−1.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeliuchenkoNazarovBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 332 vs 336 / 62756.3%53.6%187 / 332 vs 336 / 627Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SeliuchenkoSeliuchenko 1.50/Nazarov 2.50
Hit
What we said
60.1%
Seliuchenko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Seliuchenko @ 1.50 · Won
What happened
3–0
Seliuchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 16:00O. Seliuchenko258890A. Nazarov331111113
WJun 22 · 17:20O. Seliuchenko571114813113A. Nazarov55912111582
LJun 18 · 18:50O. Seliuchenko30114781A. Nazarov4071111113
WJun 15 · 14:50O. Seliuchenko4511167113A. Nazarov399141151
WJun 11 · 14:50O. Seliuchenko47111159113A. Nazarov4289111132
LJun 1 · 18:50O. Seliuchenko30137371A. Nazarov44111111113
WMay 29 · 18:50O. Seliuchenko501171011113A. Nazarov4991112892
WMay 25 · 18:50O. Seliuchenko49116129113A. Nazarov46911101152
WMay 21 · 18:50O. Seliuchenko4514911113A. Nazarov351211571
LMay 18 · 20:50O. Seliuchenko351071171A. Nazarov4112117113
O. Seliuchenko10
WOct 9 · 12:40O. Seliuchenko1.611111123I. Nitchenko2.2078100LOct 2 · 15:40O. Seliuchenko2.6381290V. Marushchak1.441114103LOct 2 · 14:40O. Seliuchenko2.00811131282A. Hrabskyi1.731151114113LOct 2 · 13:10O. Seliuchenko2.00126116102V. Savoliuk1.731011811123LOct 2 · 11:10O. Seliuchenko2.3811511572A. Lievshin1.53711911113WOct 1 · 18:30A. Derevianko2.381311881O. Seliuchenko1.5315811113LOct 1 · 17:30O. Strutinskiy2.751111113O. Seliuchenko1.409870LOct 1 · 16:00A. Nazarov2.381111113O. Seliuchenko1.538890LOct 1 · 14:00V. Savoliuk1.671181311143O. Seliuchenko2.10311155122WOct 1 · 12:00Y. Riadynskyi2.0011113982O. Seliuchenko1.73671111113
A. Nazarov10
LOct 9 · 10:40O. Strutinskiy1.5761113113A. Nazarov2.251151171WOct 3 · 11:50A. Nazarov1.8311119113M. Mrykh1.83791151LOct 3 · 10:20A. Nazarov1.8091090A. Derevianko1.911112113LOct 3 · 08:50A. Nazarov2.105670V. Savoliuk1.671111113LOct 3 · 07:20A. Nazarov1.57511110O. Zhyrnov2.251113133WOct 3 · 05:50A. Nazarov2.2041211113O. Strutinskiy1.611110681LOct 1 · 18:00Y. Riadynskyi1.571211116133A. Nazarov2.251013911112WOct 1 · 17:00A. Nazarov2.1011119113V. Savoliuk1.67971181WOct 1 · 16:00A. Nazarov2.381111113O. Seliuchenko1.538890LOct 1 · 14:30A. Nazarov1.73851171A. Derevianko2.0011119113
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