TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Seliuchenko vs Anatolii Lievshin 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117511119511711
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:53 and never touched: 64.4% is still 64.4%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Lievshin to win
64.4%
64.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Seliuchenko above · Anatolii Lievshin below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 88 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Anatolii Lievshin at 64.4%
88 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Seliuchenko 9–12 Anatolii Lievshin Oleksandr Seliuchenko has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5364.4%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 0.8pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lievshin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-12 in 21
Lievshin
Correct
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Seliuchenko 1599 vs Lievshin 1739
Lievshin
Correct
both rated, 140 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Seliuchenko 40% vs Lievshin 80%
Lievshin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Seliuchenko 50% vs Lievshin 70%
Lievshin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Seliuchenko +1 · Lievshin +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Lievshin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lievshin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSeliuchenko 2.375 / Lievshin 1.533
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Lievshin)-0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13229133
Seliuchenko2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog52% won 43 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back35% 16 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 26
Lievshin1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 138 of 232
Up 2–0, closes it95% 70 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it84% 108 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSeliuchenko3wins
AwayLievshin7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLievshin leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSeliuchenko60%3 of 5
AwayLievshin100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Seliuchenko5Lievshin5n = 10split evenly
S2Seliuchenko5Lievshin5n = 10split evenly
S3Seliuchenko3Lievshin7n = 10Lievshin took 7 of 10
S4Seliuchenko1Lievshin3n = 4Lievshin took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeliuchenkoLievshinS − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match29.536.7−7.2per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeliuchenkoLievshinBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 329 vs 208 / 37156.8%56.1%187 / 329 vs 208 / 371Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LievshinSeliuchenko 2.38/Lievshin 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.4%
Lievshin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lievshin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 11:10O. Seliuchenko3911511572A. Lievshin49711911113
WSep 21 · 11:40O. Seliuchenko351111133A. Lievshin2449110
LSep 15 · 14:00O. Seliuchenko44111112552A. Lievshin54991411113
LSep 11 · 12:40O. Seliuchenko125520A. Lievshin331111113
LSep 9 · 08:50O. Seliuchenko112540A. Lievshin331111113
LSep 2 · 09:20O. Seliuchenko271111411A. Lievshin4313811113
LSep 1 · 17:30O. Seliuchenko2451270A. Lievshin361114113
WAug 28 · 16:10O. Seliuchenko4414118113A. Lievshin371291151
LAug 25 · 17:30O. Seliuchenko26121220A. Lievshin391414113
WAug 19 · 12:20O. Seliuchenko331111113A. Lievshin196940
O. Seliuchenko10
WOct 1 · 18:30A. Derevianko2.381311881O. Seliuchenko1.5315811113LOct 1 · 17:30O. Strutinskiy2.751111113O. Seliuchenko1.409870LOct 1 · 16:00A. Nazarov2.381111113O. Seliuchenko1.538890LOct 1 · 14:00V. Savoliuk1.671181311143O. Seliuchenko2.10311155122WOct 1 · 12:00Y. Riadynskyi2.0011113982O. Seliuchenko1.73671111113WSep 26 · 11:50O. Seliuchenko1.781111113M. Mrykh1.924490LSep 26 · 10:20O. Seliuchenko1.53761181A. Derevianko2.3811117113LSep 26 · 08:50O. Seliuchenko1.8381111752M. Deineha1.83118611113WSep 26 · 07:20O. Seliuchenko2.20711911113V. Savoliuk1.6111711482WSep 26 · 05:50O. Seliuchenko1.40611129113O. Zhyrnov2.75116101152
A. Lievshin10
WSep 30 · 12:50P. Plakushchyi2.752770A. Lievshin1.401111113WSep 30 · 11:20A. Lievshin1.406151111113M. Deineha2.7511175662LSep 30 · 09:20A. Hrabskyi3.251110611143A. Lievshin1.33612119122WSep 30 · 07:20O. Kolbasenko1.531111710102A. Lievshin2.38971112123WSep 30 · 06:20A. Yurkov2.25891161A. Lievshin1.5711118113WSep 29 · 17:53P. Plakushchyi2.637660A. Lievshin1.441111113LSep 29 · 16:30V. Marushchak1.50661111113A. Lievshin2.5011118972LSep 29 · 15:00A. Lievshin1.4058111182P. Plakushchyi2.75111168113WSep 29 · 13:30A. Lievshin1.331111113A. Hrabskyi3.259860WSep 29 · 12:00A. Lievshin1.671111113A. Yurkov2.105730
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