TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Pavel Plakushchyi vs Anatolii Lievshin 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211711711––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:46 and never touched: 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Lievshin to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Plakushchyi above · Anatolii Lievshin below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 49 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Anatolii Lievshin at 68.7%
49 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Plakushchyi 2–6 Anatolii Lievshin Pavel Plakushchyi has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:4668.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Lievshin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Lievshin
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plakushchyi 1621 vs Lievshin 1722
Lievshin
Correct
both rated, 101 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plakushchyi 60% vs Lievshin 80%
Lievshin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plakushchyi 50% vs Lievshin 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Plakushchyi +1 · Lievshin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Lievshin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plakushchyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlakushchyi 2.75 / Lievshin 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Lievshin)-2.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218935
Plakushchyi2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 87 of 258
Down 0–1, comes back15% 24 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 91
Lievshin1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 135 of 228
Up 2–0, closes it94% 68 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it84% 106 of 126
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomePlakushchyi2wins
AwayLievshin6wins
3 of 8 to a deciderLievshin leads 6–2, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlakushchyin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLievshin100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plakushchyi2Lievshin6n = 8Lievshin took 6 of 8
S2Plakushchyi3Lievshin5n = 8Lievshin took 5 of 8
S3Plakushchyi3Lievshin5n = 8Lievshin took 5 of 8
S4Plakushchyi0Lievshin5n = 5Lievshin took 5 of 5
S5Plakushchyi2Lievshin1n = 3Plakushchyi took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricPlakushchyiLievshinP − LBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match32.139.4−7.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlakushchyiLievshinBasisWin rate · lifetime328 / 736 vs 206 / 36944.6%55.8%328 / 736 vs 206 / 369Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LievshinPlakushchyi 2.75/Lievshin 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.7%
Lievshin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lievshin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 29 · 17:53P. Plakushchyi197660A. Lievshin331111113
WSep 29 · 15:00P. Plakushchyi47111168113A. Lievshin4358111182
LSep 28 · 17:00P. Plakushchyi45711121052A. Lievshin531191012113
LSep 25 · 17:40P. Plakushchyi2381140A. Lievshin351113113
LSep 7 · 16:10P. Plakushchyi326131211A. Lievshin47111114113
WAug 31 · 16:10P. Plakushchyi50119118113A. Lievshin3261131112
LAug 28 · 14:10P. Plakushchyi28731171A. Lievshin3911116113
LJul 31 · 16:40P. Plakushchyi134630A. Lievshin331111113
P. Plakushchyi10
WSep 30 · 10:50A. Yurkov1.361011115112P. Plakushchyi3.00126211133LSep 30 · 08:50O. Kolbasenko1.2211412113P. Plakushchyi4.007111061WSep 30 · 07:50P. Plakushchyi2.00111511113M. Deineha1.73617771WSep 30 · 06:50A. Hrabskyi1.8078171142P. Plakushchyi1.911111158113LSep 29 · 17:53P. Plakushchyi2.637660A. Lievshin1.441111113WSep 29 · 16:00P. Plakushchyi3.25111165113A. Yurkov1.3356111182WSep 29 · 15:00A. Lievshin1.4058111182P. Plakushchyi2.75111168113LSep 29 · 14:00P. Plakushchyi1.8391090V. Marushchak1.831112113LSep 29 · 12:30A. Hrabskyi1.839111111113P. Plakushchyi1.8311761352LSep 28 · 18:00Y. Shmyndra1.571111113P. Plakushchyi2.254870
A. Lievshin10
WSep 30 · 11:20A. Lievshin1.406151111113M. Deineha2.7511175662LSep 30 · 09:20A. Hrabskyi3.251110611143A. Lievshin1.33612119122WSep 30 · 07:20O. Kolbasenko1.531111710102A. Lievshin2.38971112123WSep 30 · 06:20A. Yurkov2.25891161A. Lievshin1.5711118113WSep 29 · 17:53P. Plakushchyi2.637660A. Lievshin1.441111113LSep 29 · 16:30V. Marushchak1.50661111113A. Lievshin2.5011118972LSep 29 · 15:00A. Lievshin1.4058111182P. Plakushchyi2.75111168113WSep 29 · 13:30A. Lievshin1.331111113A. Hrabskyi3.259860WSep 29 · 12:00A. Lievshin1.671111113A. Yurkov2.105730LSep 28 · 19:00A. Lievshin1.6791270A. Yurkov2.101114113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.